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Price return autocorrelation and predictability in agent-based models of financial markets

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Author Info
Damien Challet
Tobias Galla

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Abstract

We demonstrate that minority mechanisms arise in the dynamics of markets because of price impact; accordingly the relative importance of minority and delayed majority mechanisms depends on the frequency of trading. We then use mixed Majority/Minority Games to illustrate that a vanishing price return autocorrelation function does not necessarily imply market efficiency. On the contrary, we stress that crucial differences might be present between correlations measured conditionally and unconditionally on external patterns in such models.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Quantitative Finance.

Volume (Year): 5 (2005)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
Pages: 569-576
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Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:5:y:2005:i:6:p:569-576

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Matteo Marsili & Damien Challet, 2001. "Trading Behavior And Excess Volatility In Toy Markets," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 3-17. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Paul Jefferies & Michael Hart & Neil Johnson & P.M. Hui, 2001. "From market games to real-world markets," OFRC Working Papers Series 2001mf02, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  4. A C C Coolen & J A F Heimel, 2001. "Dynamical Solution of the On-Line Minority Game," Quantitative Finance Papers cond-mat/0107600, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Simone Bianco & Roberto Ren\'o, 2006. "Unexpected volatility and intraday serial correlation," Quantitative Finance Papers physics/0610023, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
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