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Inter-pattern speculation: beyond minority, majority and $-games


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  • Damien Challet

    (Oxford University)


A new model of financial market is proposed, based on the sequential and inter-temporal nature of trader-trader interaction. In this pattern- based speculation model, the traders open and close their positions explicitely. Information ecology can be precisely characterised, and is strikingly similar to that of the Minority Game. Naive and sophisticated agents are shown to give rise to very different phenomenology.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0503006.

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Length: 6 pages
Date of creation: 09 Mar 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0503006

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 6
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Related research

Keywords: Financial market; agent-based modelling; minority game; majority game; $-game; information; market efficiency;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  1. Damien Challet & Matteo Marsili & Gabriele Ottino, 2004. "Shedding light on El Farol," Game Theory and Information 0406002, EconWPA.
  2. J. Doyne Farmer & Shareen Joshi, 2000. "The Price Dynamics of Common Trading Strategies," Working Papers 00-12-069, Santa Fe Institute.
  3. J. Doyne Farmer, 2002. "Market force, ecology and evolution," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 895-953, November.
  4. Challet, Damien, 2004. "Minority mechanisms in models of agents learning collectively a resource level," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 24-29.
  5. repec:att:wimass:9530 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Matteo Marsili, 2002. "Dissecting financial markets: Sectors and states," Papers cond-mat/0207156,
  7. Damien Challet & Matteo Marsili & Yi-Cheng Zhang, 1999. "Modeling Market Mechanism with Minority Game," Papers cond-mat/9909265,
  8. Challet, D. & Zhang, Y.-C., 1997. "Emergence of cooperation and organization in an evolutionary game," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 246(3), pages 407-418.
  9. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  10. Matteo Marsili, 2002. "Dissecting financial markets: sectors and states," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 297-302.
  11. Damien Challet & Tobias Galla, 2004. "Price return auto-correlation and predictability in agent-based models of financial markets," Papers cond-mat/0404264,, revised Dec 2004.
  12. D. Challet & A. Chessa & M. Marsili & Y. -C. Zhang, 2000. "From Minority Games to real markets," Papers cond-mat/0011042,
  13. Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 1999. "Toward a theory of marginally efficient markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 269(1), pages 30-44.
  14. repec:fth:louvco:9131 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Slanina, František & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 2001. "Dynamical spin-glass-like behavior in an evolutionary game," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 289(1), pages 290-300.
  16. Yi-Cheng Zhang, 2001. "Why Financial Markets Will Remain Marginally Inefficient?," Papers cond-mat/0105373,
  17. Rothenstein, R & Pawelzik, K, 2003. "Evolution and anti-evolution in a minimal stock market model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 326(3), pages 534-543.
  18. R. Rothenstein & K. Pawelzik, 2002. "Evolution and anti-evolution in a minimal stock market model," Papers nlin/0211010,, revised May 2003.
  19. Marsili, Matteo, 2001. "Market mechanism and expectations in minority and majority games," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 93-103.
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Cited by:
  1. Li-Xin Zhong & Wen-Juan Xu & Fei Ren & Yong-Dong Shi, 2012. "Coupled effects of market impact and asymmetric sensitivity in financial markets," Papers 1209.3399,, revised Jan 2013.
  2. Li-Xin Zhong & Wen-Juan Xu & Ping Huang & Chen-Yang Zhong & Tian Qiu, 2013. "Self-organization and phase transition in financial markets with multiple choices," Papers 1312.0690,, revised Jun 2014.
  3. Luca Grilli & Angelo Sfrecola, 2005. "Neural Networks to Predict Financial Time Series in a Minority Game Context," Quaderni DSEMS 14-2005, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.
  4. Takero Ibuki & Jun-ichi Inoue, 2011. "Response of double-auction markets to instantaneous Selling–Buying signals with stochastic Bid–Ask spread," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 93-120, November.
  5. Zhong, Li-Xin & Xu, Wen-Juan & Ren, Fei & Shi, Yong-Dong, 2013. "Coupled effects of market impact and asymmetric sensitivity in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(9), pages 2139-2149.
  6. B. A. Mello & V. M.C.S. Souza & D. O. Cajueiro & R. F.S. Andrade, 2010. "Network evolution based on minority game with herding behavior," The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer, vol. 76(1), pages 147-156, July.
  7. Karol Wawrzyniak & Wojciech Wislicki, 2011. "Mesoscopic approach to minority games in herd regime," Papers 1112.0210,
  8. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2011. "Panel Statement: The endogenous dynamics of markets: price impact and feedback loops," Chapters, European Central Bank.
  9. Ted Theodosopoulos & Ming Yuen, 2006. "Imbalance attractors for a strategic model of market microstructure," Papers math/0605421,
  10. Ren, F. & Zhang, Y.C., 2008. "Trading model with pair pattern strategies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(22), pages 5523-5534.


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