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Trade Potential In An Enlarged European Union: A Recent Approach Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Enrique Martínez-Galán (ISEG-UTL & Portuguese Ministry for Finance)
Maria-Paula Fontoura (ISEG-UTL)
Isabel Proença (ISEG- UTL & CEMAPRE)
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This paper aims to evaluate the trade potential of manufactured products between the members of the EU25 in the threshold of its Eastern enlargement. We estimate, for 2002, a cross-section gravity model, whose coefficients will be used to project the “natural” trade relations between them. Relatively to previous evaluations of trade potential, we include in the gravity model a variable related to the countries’ complementarities in terms of their Commodity Composition of Trade and we opt for a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimator. The latter is confronted with the OLS estimator normally used in this type of models.
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Trade with number
0508011.
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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 31 Aug 2005Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0508011Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 31Contact details of provider: Web page: http://129.3.20.41
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Keywords: European Union to 25 members ; Trade Potential ; Gravity Model ; Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimator ; Commodities Composition of Trade in Manufactures. ; Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
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