Trade Potential In An Enlarged European Union: A Recent Approach
AbstractThis paper aims to evaluate the trade potential of manufactured products between the members of the EU25 in the threshold of its Eastern enlargement. We estimate, for 2002, a cross-section gravity model, whose coefficients will be used to project the “natural” trade relations between them. Relatively to previous evaluations of trade potential, we include in the gravity model a variable related to the countries’ complementarities in terms of their Commodity Composition of Trade and we opt for a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimator. The latter is confronted with the OLS estimator normally used in this type of models.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series International Trade with number 0508011.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 31 Aug 2005
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 31
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European Union to 25 members; Trade Potential; Gravity Model; Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimator; Commodities Composition of Trade in Manufactures.;
Other versions of this item:
- Maria Paula Fontoura & Enrique Martínez-Galán & Isabel Proença, 2006. "Trade Potential in an Enlarged European Union: A Recent Approach," Working Papers 2006/08, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon..
- C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
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