This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Ireland's Trading Potential with Central and Eastern European Countries: A Gravity Study

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Marius Brülhart
Mary Kelly

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Using a gravity model, we estimate the magnitude of potential trade flows between Ireland and the five CEEC countries currently negotiating accession to the EU. We find that Irish exports were already close to their "normal" level in 1994, but that imports from the CEECs were still only half of their "normal" size. The value of estimated "normal" trade corresponds to 0.8 percent of Irish GNP. The actual share in 1994 was 0.5 percent. EU enlargement would raise Ireland-CEEC trade to 1.2 percent of GNP. The short-term scope for trade expansion therefore appears to be modest. Stronger potential for trade growth emerges in the "long-term" scenario, which assumes partial income convergence of the EU and the CEECs. According to our upper-limit estimate in the convergence scenario, the value of Irish trade with the CEECs could reach 7.7 percent of Irish GNP in 2020.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.tcd.ie/Economics/TEP/1998/1998%20Technical%20Papers/9815.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics in its series Economics Technical Papers with number 9815.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tcd:tcduet:9815

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Trinity College, Dublin 2
Phone: (+ 353 1) 6081325
Fax: 6772503
Web page: http://www.tcd.ie/Economics/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Dylan Sutherland) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Dylan Sutherland to update the entry or send us the correct address..

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Vittas, H. & Mauro, P., 1995. "Potential Trade with Core and Periphery: Industry Differences in Trade Patterns," Papers 10, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies-.
  2. Gual, Jordi & Martín, Carmela, 1994. "Trade and Foreign Direct Investment with Central and Eastern Europe: Its Impact on Spain," CEPR Discussion Papers 1006, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 1997. "Technology and Bilateral Trade," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 79, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
    Other versions:
  4. Greenaway, David & Nam, Chong Hyun, 1988. "Industrialisation and Macroeconomic Performance in Developing Countries under Alternative Trade Strategies," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(3), pages 419-35.
  5. Schumacher, D., 1995. "Impact on German Trade of Increased Division of Labor with Eastern Europe," Papers 6, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies-.
  6. Robert C. Feenstra & James A. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Undertstanding the Home Market Effect and the Gravity Equation: The Role of Differentiating Goods," NBER Working Papers 6804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Deardorff, A.V., 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade : Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," Papers 95-05, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
    Other versions:
  8. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marques, Helena, 2002. "Trade Similarities between Eastern and Southern Europe: Opportunities or Competition?," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 3(2). [Downloadable!]
  2. Yeboah, Osei-Agyeman & Shaik, Saleem & Wozniak, Shawn & Allen, Albert J., 2008. "Increased Cocoa Bean Exports under Trade Liberalization: A Gravity Model Approach," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6819, Southern Agricultural Economics Association. [Downloadable!]
  3. repec:bep:eaptop:v:5:y:2005:i:1:p:1386-1386 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. A. Porojan, 2001. "Trade Flows and Spatial Effects: The Gravity Model Revisited," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 265-280, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? RePEc data is maintained by each archive holder on its own website. Nothing is held centrally.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-20.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.