This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Trade Integration of Central and Eastern European Countries: Lessons from a Gravity Model

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Matthieu Bussière (European Central Bank)
Jarko Fidrmuc () (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München)
Bernd Schnatz (European Central Bank)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to analyse the factors behind the rapid trade integration of the Central and Eastern European countries with the euro area in the past ten years and to gauge the potential for further integration. We use as benchmark an enhanced gravity model estimated with a large sample of bilateral trade flows across 61 countries since 1980. We show that a careful examination of the fixed effects of the model is crucial for the proper interpretation of the results: simply extracting the predicted values of the regression (“in-sample”) – as commonly done in the literature – leads to distorted results as it fails to take the transition process properly into account. As an alternative, we propose a two-stage “out-of-sample” approach. The results suggest that trade integration between most of the largest Central and Eastern European countries and the euro area is already relatively advanced, while the Baltic countries as well as the South Eastern European countries still have significant scope for integration.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.oenb.at/de/img/wp105_tcm14-36591.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 105.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 10 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:105

Contact details of provider:
Postal: P.O. Box 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria
Phone: +43/1/404 20 7205
Fax: +43/1/404 20 7299
Email:
Web page: http://www.oenb.at/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division, c/o Beate Hofbauer-Berlakovich, POB 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria
Email:

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Markus Knell and Helmut Stix).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Melanie Leiner-Killinger & Christophe Madaschi & Melanie Ward-Warmedinger, 2005. "What does European institutional integration tell us about trade integration?," Occasional Paper Series 41, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Peter Egger, 2004. "Estimating regional trading bloc effects with panel data," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 140(1), pages 151-166, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Francisco Maeso-Fernandez & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2004. "Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for CEE acceding countries: methodological issues and a panel cointegration perspective," Working Paper Series 353, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo OrdoÒez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Yongcheol Shin & Laura Serlenga, 2004. "Gravity Models of the Intra-EU Trade: Application of the Hausman-Taylor Estimation in Heterogeneous Panels with Common Time-specific Factors," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 671, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  6. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 49-63. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Jakab, Zoltan M. & Kovacs, Mihaly A. & Oszlay, Andras, 2001. "How Far Has Trade Integration Advanced?: An Analysis of the Actual and Potential Trade of Three Central and Eastern European Countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 276-292, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Andrew K. Rose, 2004. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 98-114, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Hoekman, Bernard & Djankov, Simeon, 1997. "Determinants of the Export Structure of Countries in Central and Eastern Europe," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 471-87, September.
  10. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Hamid Faruqee, 2004. "Measuring the Trade Effects of EMU," IMF Working Papers 04/154, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Jan Fidrmuc & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "Disintegration and Trade," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(5), pages 811-829, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2003. "The proper panel econometric specification of the gravity equation: A three-way model with bilateral interaction effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 571-580, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Deardoff, A.V., 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," Working Papers 382, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  15. Hassan Al-Atrash & Oli Havrylyshyn, 1998. "Opening Up and Geographic Diversification of Trade in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 98/22, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU," RES Working Papers 4339, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  17. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2004. "Distance, trade and FDI: a Hausman-Taylor SUR approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 227-246. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. repec:fth:michin:382 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Hamilton, C.B. & Winters, L.A., 1992. "Opening Up International Trade in Eastern Europe," Papers 511, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  20. Alan V. Deardorff, 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Working Papers 5377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Hausman, Jerry A. & Taylor, William E., 1981. "Panel data and unobservable individual effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 155-155, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  23. Francesco Paolo Mongelli & Ettore Dorrucci & Itai Agur, 2005. "What does European institutional integration tell us about trade integration?," Occasional Paper Series 40, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  24. Hausman, Jerry A & Taylor, William E, 1981. "Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1377-98, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Peter Egger, . "An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials," WIFO Working Papers 141, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
  26. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004. "The core and periphery of the world economy," Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 89-106, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Markusen, James R. & Venables, Anthony J., 1998. "Multinational firms and the new trade theory," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 183-203, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  28. Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2007. "Exchange rate policy and export performance of WAMZ countries," MPRA Paper 6233, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Joze P. Damijan & Matija Rojec & Maja Ferjancic, 2008. "Growing export performance of transition economies: EU market access versus supply capacity factors," LICOS Discussion Papers 20208, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, K.U.Leuven. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2005. "Austria's EU Accession and Trade," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 170-177, August. [Downloadable!]
  4. Matthieu Bussière & Bernd Schnatz, 2006. "Evaluating China’s integration in world trade with a gravity model based benchmark," Working Paper Series 693, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Maria Paula Fontoura & Enrique Martínez-Galán & Isabel Proença, 2006. "Trade Potential in an Enlarged European Union: A Recent Approach," Working Papers 2006/08, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. David Moore & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2007. "Economic Growth in Croatia: Potential and Constraints," IMF Working Papers 07/198, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2007. "Effects of exchange rate policy on bilateral export trade of WAMZ countries," MPRA Paper 6234, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Use the JEL tree to browse through the database by subfields.

This page was last updated on 2008-11-17.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.