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Augmented gravity model: An empirical application to Mercosur- European trade flows

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Author Info
Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso (Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research of the University of Goettingen)
Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D. (Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research of the University of Goettingen)

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Abstract

This paper applies the gravity trade model to assess Mercosur-European Union trade, and trade potential following the agreements reached recently between both trade blocks. The model ist tested for a sample of 19 countries, the four formal members of Mercosur plus Chile and the fifteen members of the European Union. A panel data analysis is used to disentangle the time invariant country-specific effects and to capture the relationships between the relevant variables over time. We find that the fixed effect model is to be preferred to the random effects gravity model. Furthermore, a number of variables, namely, infrastructure, income differences and exchange rates added to the standard gravity equation, are found to be important determinants of bilateral trade flows.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Trade with number 0309019.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 10 Sep 2003
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0309019

Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; pages: 23 ; figures: none
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Related research
Keywords: Gravity equation; panel data; infrastructure; integration;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Diao, Xinshen & Somwaru, Agapi, 2000. "An Inquiry on General Equilibrium Effects of MERCOSUR--An Intertemporal World Model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 557-588, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Shang-Jin Wei, 1996. "Intra-National versus International Trade: How Stubborn are Nations in Global Integration?," NBER Working Papers 5531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Soloaga, Isidro & Winters, L. Alan, 1999. "Regionalism in the Nineties: What Effect on Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Helpman, Elhanan, 1987. "Imperfect competition and international trade: Evidence from fourteen industrial countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 62-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Oguledo, Victor Iwuagwu & MacPhee, Craig R, 1994. "Gravity Models: A Reformulation and an Application to Discriminatory Trade Arrangements," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 107-20, February.
  6. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Egger, Peter, 2000. "A note on the proper econometric specification of the gravity equation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 25-31, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Deardorff, A.V., 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade : Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," Papers 95-05, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
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  9. Fritz Breuss & Peter Egger, 1999. "How Reliable Are Estimations of East-West Trade Potentials Based on Cross-Section Gravity Analyses?," Empirica, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 81-94, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Limao, Nuno & Venables, Anthony J., 1999. "Infrastructure, geographical disadvantage, and transport costs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2257, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Santeramo, F.G. & Seccia, A. & De Blasi, G. & Carlucci, D., 2008. "Agritourism flows to Italy: an analysis of determinants using the gravity model approach," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6623, European Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
  2. Cortes, Maria, 2007. "Composition of Trade between Australia and Latin America: Gravity Model," Economics Working Papers wp07-19, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Paas, Tiiu & Tafenau, Egle, 2005. "European Trade Integration in the Baltic Sea Region - A Gravity Model Based Analysis," Discussion Paper Series 26263, Hamburg Institute of International Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Eita, Joel Hinaunye & Jordaan, Andre C., 2007. "Estimating The Tourism Potential In Namibia," MPRA Paper 5788, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. repec:bep:eaptop:v:5:y:2005:i:1:p:1386-1386 is not listed on IDEAS
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  6. Vlontzos, George & Duquenne, Marie-Noelle, 2007. "Evolution of trade flows for sheep milk cheese: an empirical model for Greece," 105th Seminar, March 8-10, 2007, Bologna, Italy 7884, European Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
  7. NOWAK-LEHMANN D., Felicitas & HERZER, Dierk & VOLLMER, Sebastian, 2007. "The Free Trade Agreement Between Chile And The Eu: Its Potential Impact On Chile’S Export Industry," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. repec:bep:eaptop:v:7:y:2007:i:1:p:1557-1557 is not listed on IDEAS
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  9. Ozgul Bilici & Erkan Erdil & I. Hakan Yetkiner, 2008. "The Determining Role of EU in Turkey's Trade Flows: A Gravity Model Approach," Working Papers 0806, Izmir University of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Levin, Jörgen & Olin, Mikael, 2008. "Trade Policies and Export growth - employment and poverty impact in Tanzania," Working Papers 2008:1, Örebro University, Swedish Business School. [Downloadable!]
  11. Kula, Ferit & Aslan, Alper, 2008. "Turkiye’nin ortadogu’da ekonomik gelecegi: Turkiye’nin ihracat potansiyeline yonelik ampirik bir analiz," MPRA Paper 10688, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. Souleymane COULIBALY, 2006. "Evaluating the Trade and Welfare Effects of Developing RTAs," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 06.03, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP. [Downloadable!]
  13. Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D. & Nicholas Horsewood, 2006. "Effects of Regional Trade Agreements Using a Static and Dynamic Gravity Equation," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 149, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  14. de Blasi, Guiseppe & Seccia, Antonio & Carlucci, Domenico & Santeramo, Fabio, 2007. "Analysis of Italian High Quality Wine Exports using the Gravity Model Approach," 105th Seminar, March 8-10, 2007, Bologna, Italy 7901, European Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
  15. Nguyen Trung Kien & Yoshizo Hashimoto, 2005. "Economic Analysis Of Asean Free Trade Area; By A Country Panel Data," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 05-12, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP). [Downloadable!]
  16. Enrique Martínez-Galán & Maria-Paula Fontoura & Isabel Proença, 2005. "Trade Potential In An Enlarged European Union: A Recent Approach," International Trade 0508011, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D. & Inmaculada Martínez- Zarzoso, 2003. "The interplay of export supply and the real exchange rate. Evidence for Mercosur exports to the EU," International Trade 0309020, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  18. Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann Danzinger & Dierk Herzer & Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso & Sebastian Vollmer, 2005. "The Impact of a Customs Union between Turkey and the EU on Turkey's Exports to the EU," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 483, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Yongcheol Shin & Laura Serlenga, 2007. "Gravity models of intra-EU trade: application of the CCEP-HT estimation in heterogeneous panels with unobserved common time-specific factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 361-381. [Downloadable!]
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