Trade Potential in SAFTA: An Application of Augmented Gravity Model
AbstractThe present paper investigates the trade creation and trade diversion effects of a number of RTAs, with special focus on the SAFTA, by using a gravity model. Apart from the traditional gravity variables, the model is augmented by some other import variables (e.g. bilateral exchange rate, bilateral free trade agreement). To capture the individual country effect, along with the impact of overall RTA, a set of additional dummy variable has been introduced. The model developed in this paper is estimated by using panel data approach with country-pair specific as well as year specific fixed effects. Two stages estimation technique is deployed to arrive at the estimates. The first stage is estimated using Tobit Model, while OLS is applied in the second stage. The study finds significant intra-bloc export creation in SAPTA; however, at the same time there is evidence of net export diversion in the SAPTA. Bangladesh, India and Pakistan are expected to gain from joining the RTA, while Nepal, Maldives and Sri Lanka are likely to be negatively affected. Among the other RTAs covered under the present study, AFTA, NAFTA, SADC, MERCOSUR, CAN, EAC are associated with intra-bloc export creation and net export diversion. EU and Bangkok agreement (APTA) are found to be intra-bloc export diverting and net export diverting. BIMSTEC is found to be intra-bloc export diverting but there is no evidence of net export creation or diversion. Although none of the RTAs covered by the study was found to be net export creating, more than one third of the members of these RTAs are found to be positively affected by joining the RTAs.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) in its series CPD Working Paper with number 61.
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Trade potential; SAFTA; RTA; Gravity Model; Bangladesh; India; Pakisthan; Sri Lanka; Nepal; Maldives;
Other versions of this item:
- Mustafizur Rahman & Wasel Bin Shadat & Narayan Chandra Das, 2006. "Trade Potential in SAFTA - An Application of Augmented Gravity Model," Trade Working Papers 22296, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
- F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-01-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-CWA-2007-01-14 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-DEV-2007-01-14 (Development)
- NEP-INT-2007-01-14 (International Trade)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- José Anson & Olivier Cadot & Antoni Estevadeordal & Jaime de Melo & Akiko Suwa-Eisenmann & Bolormaa Tumurchudur, 2005.
"Rules of Origin in North-South Preferential Trading Arrangements with an Application to NAFTA,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 501-517, 08.
- Jose Anson & Olivier Cadot & Antoni Estevadeordal & Jaime de Melo & Akiko Suwa-Eisenmann & Bolorma Tumurchudur, 2004. "Rules of origin in north-south preferential trading arrangements with an application to NAFTA," Research Unit Working Papers 0406, Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquee, INRA.
- Anson, José & Cadot, Olivier & de Melo, Jaime & Estevadeordal, Antoni & Suwa Eisenmann, Akiko & Tumurchudur, Bolormaa, 2003. "Rules of Origin in North-South Preferential Trading Arrangements with an Application to NAFTA," CEPR Discussion Papers 4166, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann, 2003. "Augmented Gravity Model: An Empirical Application to Mercosur-European Union Trade Flows," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 291-316, November.
- Hassan, M. Kabir, 2001. "Is SAARC a viable economic block? evidence from gravity model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 263-290.
- Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, 05.
- Philippa Dee & Jyothi Gali, 2005.
"The Trade and Investment Effects of Preferential Trading Arrangements,"
in: International Trade in East Asia, NBER-East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 14, pages 133-176
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Philippa Dee & Jyothi Gali, 2003. "The Trade and Investment Effects of Preferential Trading Arrangements," NBER Working Papers 10160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fukao, Kyoji & Okubo, Toshihiro & Stern, Robert M., 2002.
"An Econometric Analysis of Trade Diversion under NAFTA,"
Discussion Paper Series
a431, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Fukao, Kyoji & Okubo, Toshihiro & Stern, Robert M., 2003. "An econometric analysis of trade diversion under NAFTA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-24, March.
- Kyoji Fukao & Toshihiro Okubo & Robert M. Stern, 2002. "An Econometric Analysis of Trade Diversion under NAFTA," Discussion papers 02011, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- Kyoji Fukao & Toshihiro Okubo & Robert M Stern, 2002. "An Econometric Analysis of Trade Diversion under NAFTA," Working Papers 491, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2005.
"Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 49-63.
- I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Working Papers 1999-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2006. "Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_022, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
- Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
- Souleymane Coulibaly & Lionel Fontagné, 2004.
"South-South Trade : Geography Matters,"
Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques
bla04041, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
- Souleymane Coulibaly & Lionel Fontagné, 2004. "South – South Trade: Geography Matters," Working Papers 2004-08, CEPII research center.
- Souleymane COULIBALY & Lionel FONTAGNÉ, 2004. "South-South Trade: Geography Matters," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du DÃ©partement d'EconomÃ©trie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 04.07, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003.
"Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Soloaga, Isidro & Alan Wintersb, L., 2001.
"Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade?,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
- Soloaga, Isidro & Winters, L. Alan, 1999. "Regionalism in the Nineties: What Effect on Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
- Egger, Peter, 2000.
"A note on the proper econometric specification of the gravity equation,"
Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 25-31, January.
- Peter Egger, . "A Note on the Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Equation," WIFO Working Papers 108, WIFO.
- Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-53, February.
- Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August.
- Lucian Cernat, 2001. "ASSESSING REGIONAL TRADE ARRANGEMENTS: ARE SOUTH–SOUTH RTAs MORE TRADE DIVERTING?," International Trade 0109001, EconWPA.
- Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D., 2003. "Augmented gravity model: An empirical application to Mercosur- European trade flows," International Trade 0309019, EconWPA.
- Mustafizur Rahman & Towfiqul Islam Khan & Ashiqun Nabi & Tapas Kumar Paul, 2010.
"Bangladesh's Export Opportunities in the Indian Market: Addressing Barriers and Strategies for Future,"
CPD Working Paper
90, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
- Mustafizur Rahman & Towfiqul Islam Khan & Ashiqun Nabi & Tapas Kumar Paul, 2010. "Bangladesh's Export Opportunities in the Indian Market : Addressing Barriers and Strategies for Future," Trade Working Papers 23060, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Raihan, Selim, 2012. "SAFTA and the South Asian Countries: Quantitative Assessments of Potential Implications," MPRA Paper 37884, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Mamoon, Dawood & Paracha, Sohail & Mughal, Hammad & Ayesha, Anam, 2011. "Pakistan's trade competitiveness & complementarities in South Asia," MPRA Paper 31369, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Pohit, Sanjib, 2013. "India-Pakistan Trade Liberalization: A CGE Modelling Apporach," MPRA Paper 45878, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Raihan, Selim, 2011. "Economic Corridors in South Asia: Exploring the Benefits of Market Access and Trade Facilitation," MPRA Paper 37883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Md. Joynal Abdin, 2009. "An Analysis of SAFTA in the Context of Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Research Working Paper Series (BDRWPS) BDRWPS No. 6, Bangladesh Development Research Center (BDRC).
- Nazia Gul & Hafiz M. Yasin, 2011. "The Trade Potential of Pakistan: An Application of the Gravity Model," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 23-62, Jan-Jun.
- Parakrama Samaratunga & Kamal Marunagoda & Manoj Thibbotuwawa, 2007. "Mapping and analaysis of the South Asian agricultural trade liberalization efforts," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT, in: Studies in Trade and Investment - AGRICULTURAL TRADE - PLANTING THE SEEDS OF REGIONAL LIBERALIZATION IN ASIA, volume 60, pages 33-74 United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Avra Bhattacharjee).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.