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An Econometric Analysis of Trade Diversion under NAFTA

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Author Info
Kyoji Fukao
Toshihiro Okubo
Robert M. Stern

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Abstract

We provide an econometric analysis of whether or not the tariff preferences extended to Canada and Mexico under NAFTA may have resulted in trade diversion. A review of previous studies, both descriptive and econometric, suggests that trade diversion has occurred especially as evidenced by Mexico s increased shares of U.S. imports apparently at the expense of several Asian countries. We use a conceptual framework based on a partial-equilibrium model of differentiated product industries under monopolistic competition for many countries. The model is implemented empirically using a fixed-effect panel analysis of U.S. imports at the Harmonized System (HS) 2-digit level for the period, 1992-98. Of the 70 sets of regressions that were run, the coefficients of the tariff rates were statistically significant in 15 cases. The strongest evidence of trade diversion was found mainly for U.S. imports of textile and apparel products. We also estimated regressions for selected commodities at the HS 4-digit level. The results suggest trade diversion for textiles, apparel, and some footwear products but not for trade in motor cars and vehicles and television receivers, which may have been more influenced by changes in foreign direct investment and outsourcing rather than tariff preferences.

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Paper provided by Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University in its series Discussion Paper Series with number a431.

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Date of creation: Nov 2002
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Handle: RePEc:hit:hituec:a431

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Howard J. Wall, 2002. "Has Japan been left out in the cold by regional integration?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 25-36. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-53, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Nora Lustig, 2001. "Life Is Not Easy: Mexico's Quest for Stability and Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 85-106, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Anne O. Krueger, 1993. "Free Trade Agreements as Protectionist Devices: Rules of Origin," NBER Working Papers 4352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Manning, W. G. & Duan, N. & Rogers, W. H., 1987. "Monte Carlo evidence on the choice between sample selection and two-part models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 59-82, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Cletus C. Coughlin & Howard J. Wall, 2002. "NAFTA and the changing pattern of state exports," Working Papers 2000-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  7. David M. Gould, 1998. "Has NAFTA changed North American trade?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q 1, pages 12-23. [Downloadable!]
  8. Anne O. Krueger, 2000. "NAFTA's Effects: A Preliminary Assessment," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(6), pages 761-775, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Mary E. Burfisher & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2001. "The Impact of NAFTA on the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 125-144, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Anne O. Krueger, 1999. "Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Under NAFTA," NBER Working Papers 7429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Markusen, James R, 1986. "Explaining the Volume of Trade: An Eclectic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1002-11, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Soloaga, Isidro & Alan Wintersb, L., 2001. "Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. URATA Shujiro & OKABE Misa, 2007. "The Impacts of Free Trade Agreements on Trade Flows: An Application of the Gravity Model Approach," Discussion papers 07052, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
  2. Claudio E.Montenegro & Isidro Soloaga, 2006. "Nafta´s trade efects: new evidence with a gravity model," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 33(1 Year 20), pages 45-63, June. [Downloadable!]
  3. Joseph, Siny & Lavoie, Nathalie, 2008. "Effectiveness of COOL in the U.S. Seafood Industry," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6260, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  4. Susanto, Dwi & Rosson, C. Parr & Adcock, Flynn J., 2006. "Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in the North American Free Trade Agreement: The Case of Agricultural Sector," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21357, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  5. M. Ayhan Kose & Guy Meredith & Christopher M. Towe, 2004. "How Has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 04/59, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. John Romalis, 2005. "NAFTA's and CUSFTA's Impact on International Trade," NBER Working Papers 11059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Borchert, Ingo, 2008. "Trade diversion under selective preferential market access," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4710, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Mustafizur Rahman & Wasel Bin Shadat & Narayan Chandra Das, 2006. "Trade Potential in SAFTA: An Application of Augmented Gravity Model," Occasional Papers 61, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD). [Downloadable!]
  9. Cardamone, Paola, 2007. "A survey of the assessments of the effectiveness of Preferential Trade Agreements using gravity models," Working Papers 7282, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements. [Downloadable!]
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