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New measures of trade creation and trade diversion

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  • Magee, Christopher S.P.
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    Abstract

    This paper estimates the effects of regional agreements on trade flows controlling for country pair, importer-year, and exporter-year fixed effects. These fixed effects capture the determinants of trade flows normally included in gravity model specifications and control for yearly shocks to countries' trade. Controlling for the fixed effects generally reduces the estimated trade impacts of regional agreements. The estimates reveal that regional agreements have significant anticipatory effects on trade flows and continue to affect trade for up to 11Â years after they begin. The paper also presents estimated effects on individual countries' trade flows in year five of the agreements.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

    Volume (Year): 75 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 2 (July)
    Pages: 349-362

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:75:y:2008:i:2:p:349-362

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

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    References

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    1. Haveman, J-D & Hummels, D, 1996. "Trade Creation and Trade Diversion : New Empirical Results," Papers 96-004, Purdue University, Krannert School of Management - Center for International Business Education and Research (CIBER).
    2. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1995. "Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence from the Evolution of the EC and EFTA," CEPR Discussion Papers 1294, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    4. Soloaga, Isidro & Alan Wintersb, L., 2001. "Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
    5. Anne O. Krueger, 1999. "Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Under NAFTA," NBER Working Papers 7429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ghosh, Sucharita & Yamarik, Steven, 2004. "Are regional trading arrangements trade creating?: An application of extreme bounds analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 369-395, July.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey & Rose, Andrew K., 2001. "An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," Working Paper Series rwp01-013, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    8. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 72.
    9. Mary E. Burfisher & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2001. "The Impact of NAFTA on the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 125-144, Winter.
    10. Paul Krugman, 1991. "The move toward free trade zones," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 7-58.
    11. Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1994. "Capturing NAFTA's impact with applied general equilibrium models," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 17-34.
    12. Wylie, Peter J., 1995. "Partial equilibrium estimates of manufacturing trade creation and diversion due to NAFTA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 65-84.
    13. Karemera, David & Ojah, Kalu, 1998. "An Industrial Analysis of Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of NAFTA," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 13, pages 400-425.
    14. Caroline L. Freund & John McLaren, 1999. "On the dynamics of trade diversion: evidence from four trade blocs," International Finance Discussion Papers 637, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Magee Christopher S, 2003. "Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements: An Empirical Analysis," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-19, December.
    16. Arvind Panagariya, 2000. "Preferential Trade Liberalization: The Traditional Theory and New Developments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 287-331, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Florian Mölders, 2012. "On the Path to Trade Liberalization: Political Regimes in International Trade Negotiations," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1245, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Felix Groba, 2011. "Determinants of Trade with Solar Energy Technology Components: Evidence on the Porter Hypothesis?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1163, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Bianka Dettmer, 2012. "The European Union's service directive: Contrasting ex ante estimates with empirical evidence," Jena Economic Research Papers 2012-019, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.
    4. Marius Brülhart & Kurt Schmidheiny, 2011. "Estimating the rivalness of state-level inward FDI," Working Papers 2011/36, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    5. Grant, Jason H., 2012. "Is the Growth of Regionalism as Significant as the Headlines Suggest? Lessons from Agricultural Trade," Working Papers 142374, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
    6. Moser, Christoph & Rose, Andrew K, 2011. "Who Benefits from Regional Trade Agreements? The View from the Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 8566, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Shanping Yang & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2013. "A Panel Data Analysis of Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Effects: The case of ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA)," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 224, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Bensassi, Sami & Márquez-Ramos, Laura & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2010. "Economic integration and the two margins of trade: the impact of the Barcelona Process on North African countries’ exports," MPRA Paper 27117, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Jayjit Roy, 2009. "On the Robustness of the Trade-Inducing Effects of Trade Agreements and Currency Unions," Departmental Working Papers 0906, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    10. Muhammad, Kabeer & Yücer, Aycil, 2010. "Trade effects of Regional Trade Agreements : trade creation and trade diversion within the Western Hemisphere," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/10626, Paris Dauphine University.
    11. Demir, Firat & Dahi, Omar S., 2012. "Preferential Trade Agreements and Manufactured Goods Exports: Does It Matter Whom You PTA With?," MPRA Paper 37396, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Afees Salisu & Idris Ademuyiwa, 2012. "Trade creation and trade diversion in West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 3071-3081.
    13. Jin, Seung Ha, 2013. "The Effect of South Korean FTAs on Trade: Country-level and Industry-level Analyses," Master's Theses 149430, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    14. Straathof, B. & Linders, G.J.M., 2009. "Europe’s Internal Market at Fifty: Over the Hill?," Serie Research Memoranda 0055, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    15. Elie Appelbaum & Mark Melatos, 2012. "Camouflaged Trade Agreements," Working Papers 2012_2, York University, Department of Economics.
    16. Luca De Benedictis & Lucia Tajoli, 2009. "The World Trade Network," Working Papers 51-2009, Macerata University, Department of Finance and Economic Sciences, revised Mar 2009.

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