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Trade creation, trade diversion, and the general equilibrium effects of regional trade agreements: a study of the European Community–Turkey customs union

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  • Christopher S. P. Magee

    (Bucknell University)

Abstract

This paper presents an industry-level analysis of trade flows in order to estimate the trade effects of Turkey’s customs union with the European Community (EC). The paper is able to distinguish between trade creation and trade diversion by employing tariff data on each good to measure the impact of not only the tariff level but also the difference between tariffs applied to imports from Europe and the most-favored nation tariffs applied to imports from other non-preferential trading partners. The paper estimates the general equilibrium effects of the customs union in addition to the effects of eliminating tariffs on the EC’s exports to Turkey. It concludes that the customs union has generated more than twice as much trade creation as trade diversion but that the overall impact of the customs union has been relatively small.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher S. P. Magee, 2016. "Trade creation, trade diversion, and the general equilibrium effects of regional trade agreements: a study of the European Community–Turkey customs union," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(2), pages 383-399, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:152:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s10290-015-0239-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10290-015-0239-4
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    2. Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada & Donghyun Park & Muhammad Tahir & Alam Khan, 2018. "How does terrorism affect the international trade of Muslims countries?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(5), pages 2255-2268, September.
    3. Michael Pfaffermayr, 2020. "Trade creation and trade diversion of economic integration agreements revisited: a constrained panel pseudo-maximum likelihood approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(4), pages 985-1024, November.
    4. Sangeeta Khorana & Badri G. Narayanan, 2017. "Modelling Effects of Tariff Liberalisation on India’s Key Export Sectors: Analysis of the EU–India Free Trade Agreement," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, February.
    5. Mario Larch & Aiko F. Schmeißer & Joschka Wanner, 2021. "A Tale of (almost) 1001 Coefficients: The Deep and Heterogeneous Effects of the EU‐Turkey Customs Union," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 242-260, March.
    6. Frank, Jonas, 2018. "The effects of economic sanctions on trade: New evidence from a panel PPML gravity approach," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 17-2018, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade creation; Trade diversion; Customs union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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