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How does terrorism affect the international trade of Muslims countries?

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada

    (University of Malaya)

  • Donghyun Park

    (Principal Economist, Asian Development Bank (ADB))

  • Muhammad Tahir

    (Comsats Institute of Information Technology)

  • Alam Khan

    (Kohat University of Science and Technology (KUST))

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a new model, namely the terrorism-trade and investment diversion simulator (TTID-Simulator). The simulator allows us to analyze the impact of terrorism on trade and investment diversion anywhere and anytime. Our central objective is to use the new model to evaluate the trade and investment diversion due to terrorism, and the ultimate effect on inflation rate, unemployment rate, and poverty rate. More specifically, we apply TTID-simulator to evaluate the economic effect of terrorism on Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, and Syria, four countries which suffered a lot of terrorist activity in recent years. The focus of our analysis is trade and investment diversion, and our sample period runs from 1980 to 2016.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada & Donghyun Park & Muhammad Tahir & Alam Khan, 2018. "How does terrorism affect the international trade of Muslims countries?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(5), pages 2255-2268, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:52:y:2018:i:5:d:10.1007_s11135-017-0660-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-017-0660-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Hongjin Xiang & Zheng Zhan & Mingyong Lai, 2011. "The Trade Destruction Effect and Trade Diversion Effect of RMB Appreciation," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 6(3), pages 479-493, September.
    4. Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz & Park, Donghyun & Kim, Jung Suk & Khan, Alam, 2015. "The economic impact of terrorism: A new model and its application to Pakistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1065-1080.
    5. Hongjin Xiang & Zheng Zhan & Mingyong Lai, 2011. "The trade destruction effect and trade diversion effect of RMB appreciation," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 6(3), pages 479-493, September.
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    7. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shabbir, Muhammad Shahbaz & Malik, Muhammad Nasir & Wolters, Mark Edward, 2013. "An analysis of a causal relationship between economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 21-29.
    8. Drakos, Konstantinos, 2004. "Terrorism-induced structural shifts in financial risk: airline stocks in the aftermath of the September 11th terror attacks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 435-446, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo & Park, Donghyun & Khan, Alam, 2018. "The impact of terrorism on economic performance: The case of Turkey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 78-88.
    2. Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada & Donghyun Park & Alam Khan & Muhammad Tahir, 2019. "Is terrorism, poverty, and refugees the dark side of globalization?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1823-1835, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terrorism; Policy modeling; Afghanistan; Iraq; Pakistan; Syria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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