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On the Bilateral Trade Effects of Free Trade Agreements between the EU-15 and the CEEC-4 Countries

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Christophe Rault
  • Robert Sova
  • Ana Maria Sova

Abstract

The expansion of regionalism has spawned an extensive theoretical literature analysing the effects of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on trade flows. In this paper we focus on FTAs (also called European agreements) between the European Union (EU-15) and the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC-4, i.e. Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Romania ) and model their effects on trade flows by treating the agreement variable as endogenous. Our theoretical framework is the gravity model, and the econometric method used to isolate and eliminate the potential endogeneity bias of the agreement variable is the fixed effect vector decomposition (FEVD) technique. Our estimation results indicate a positive and significant impact of FTAs on trade flows. This finding is robust to the inclusion in the sample of a group of control countries (specifically Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine) that did not sign an FTA. Besides, we show that trade growth after the FTA agreement with the EU was signed exceeded trade growth of the control group of countries which did not become members.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2419.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2419

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Keywords: regionalisation; European integration; panel data methods;

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Cited by:
  1. Timo Mitze, 2009. "Endogeneity in Panel Data Models with Time-Varying and Time-Fixed Regressors: To IV or not IV?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0083, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  2. Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2012. "Impacts of FTA utilization on firm performance," IDE Discussion Papers 366, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  3. Florian Mölders & Ulrich Volz, 2011. "Trade creation and the status of FTAs: empirical evidence from East Asia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 429-456, September.
  4. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Martin Raiser, 2010. "A Gravity Approach to Modelling International Trade in South-Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States: The Role of Geography, Policy and Institutions," Working Papers 2010/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  5. Kazunobu Hayakawa & Fukunari Kimura & Kaoru Nabeshima, 2014. "Nonconventional provisions in regional trade agreements: Do they enhance international trade?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 113-138, May.
  6. Christophe Rault & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Robert Sova & Anamaria Sova, 2009. "Trade Specialisation And Economic Convergence: Evidence From Two Eastern European Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp959, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  7. Timo Mitze & Björn Alecke & Gerhard Untiedt, 2009. "Trade-FDI Linkages in a System of Gravity Equations for German Regional Data," Ruhr Economic Papers 0084, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  8. Richard Frensch & Jan Hanousek & Evzen Kocenda, 2013. "Specialization, gravity, and European trade in final goods," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1054, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  9. Selim Inançli & Mustafa Akal, 2013. "Export and Import Products Groups’ Shares of Turkey with Cee Countries After Theirs Accessions to Eu and Before," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(11), pages 1419-1438, November.
  10. Suhail P & Sreejesh S, 2011. "The bilateral trade agreements and export performance of South Asian nations with special reference to India Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 14(42), pages 115-130, December.
  11. Festus Ebo Turkson, . "Trade Agreements and Bilateral Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa: Estimating the Trade Effects of the EU-ACP PTA and RTAs," Discussion Papers 12/07, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
  12. Marjan Petreski, 2013. "Southeastern European Trade Analysis: A Role for Endogenous CEFTA-2006?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 49(5), pages 26-44, September.
  13. Timo Mitze, 2010. "Estimating Gravity Models of International Trade with Correlated Time-Fixed Regressors: To IV or not IV?," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2010_22, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  14. Cipollina, Maria & Laborde, David & Salvatici, Luca, 2013. "Do Preferential Trade Policies (Actually) Increase Exports? An analysis of EU trade policies," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150177, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  15. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Kimura, Fukunari, 2014. "How do free trade agreements reduce tariff rates and non-tariff barriers?," IDE Discussion Papers 446, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  16. Breusch, Trevor & Ward, Michael B & Nguyen, Hoa & Kompas, Tom, 2010. "On the fixed-effects vector decomposition," MPRA Paper 21452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Oxana Babecká Kucharčuková & Jan Babecký & Martin Raiser, 2012. "Gravity Approach for Modelling International Trade in South-Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States: The Role of Geography, Policy and Institutions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 277-301, April.
  18. Mitze, Timo & Alecke, Björn & Untiedt, Gerhard, 2008. "Trade, FDI and Cross-Variable Linkages: A German (Macro-)Regional Perspective," MPRA Paper 12245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Bianka Dettmer, 2012. "The European Union's service directive: Contrasting ex ante estimates with empirical evidence," Jena Economic Research Papers 2012-019, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.

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