Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

On the bilateral trade effects of free trade agreements between the EU-15 and the CEEC-4 countries

Contents:

Author Info

  • Guglielmo Caporale

    ()

  • Christophe Rault
  • Robert Sova
  • Anamaria Sova

Abstract

The expansion of regionalism has spawned an extensive theoretical literature analysing the effects of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on trade flows. In this paper we focus on FTAs (also called European agreements) between the European Union (EU-15) and the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC-4, i.e. Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Romania ) and model their effects on trade flows by treating the agreement variable as endogenous. Our theoretical framework is the gravity model, and the econometric method used to isolate and eliminate the potential endogeneity bias of the agreement variable is the fixed effect vector decomposition (FEVD) technique. Our estimation results indicate a positive and significant impact of FTAs on trade flows. This finding is robust to the inclusion in the sample of a group of control countries (specifically Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine) that did not sign an FTA. Besides, we show that trade growth after the FTA agreement with the EU was signed exceeded trade growth of the control group of countries which did not become members.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10290-009-0011-8
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Review of World Economics.

Volume (Year): 145 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
Pages: 189-206

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:145:y:2009:i:2:p:189-206

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Kiellinie 66, D-24105 Kiel
Phone: +49 431 8814-1
Fax: +49 431 8814528
Email:
Web page: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/10290/index.htm
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://link.springer.de/orders.htm

Related research

Keywords: Regionalisation; European integration; Panel data methods; F13; F15; C23;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Peter Egger, . "An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials," WIFO Working Papers 141, WIFO.
  2. Hausman, Jerry A & Taylor, William E, 1981. "Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1377-98, November.
  3. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," NBER Working Papers 9273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Schiff, Maurice & Winters, L. Alan, 1997. "Regional integration as diplomacy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1801, The World Bank.
  5. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2001. "Distance, Trade and FDI: A Hausman-Taylor SUR Approach," WIFO Working Papers 164, WIFO.
  6. Peter Egger, . "A Note on the Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Equation," WIFO Working Papers 108, WIFO.
  7. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Stein, Ernesto & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1996. "Regional Trading Arrangements: Natural or Supernatural," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 52-56, May.
  8. Christophe RAULT & Ana Maria SOVA & Robert SOVA, 2007. "The Endogeneity of Association Agreements and their Impact on Trade for Eastern Countries: Empirical Evidence for Romania," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp868, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  9. Bhagwati, Jagdish & Panagariya, Arvind, 1996. "The Theory of Preferential Trade Agreements: Historical Evolution and Current Trends," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 82-87, May.
  10. Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand, 2005. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade?," Working Paper 2005-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  11. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2004. "Economic determinants of free trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 29-63, October.
  12. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
  13. Soloaga, Isidro & Winters, L. Alan, 1999. "Regionalism in the Nineties: What Effect on Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Shang-Jin Wei & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1998. "Open Regionalism in a World of Continental Trade Blocs," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(3), pages 440-453, September.
  15. Rault, Christophe & Sova, Robert & Sova, Anamaria, 2007. "The Role of Association Agreements within European Union Enlargement to Central and Eastern European Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 2769, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  16. Eichengreen, Barry & Irwin, Douglas A., 1995. "Trade blocs, currency blocs and the reorientation of world trade in the 1930s," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 1-24, February.
  17. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2003. "The proper panel econometric specification of the gravity equation: A three-way model with bilateral interaction effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 571-580, July.
  18. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August.
  19. Magee Christopher S, 2003. "Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements: An Empirical Analysis," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-19, December.
  20. Fernandez, Raquel & Portes, Jonathan, 1998. "Returns to Regionalism: An Analysis of Nontraditional Gains from Regional Trade Agreements," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(2), pages 197-220, May.
  21. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-53, February.
  22. de Melo, Jaime & Panagariya, Arvind & Rodrik, Dani, 1993. "The new regionalism : a country perspective," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1094, The World Bank.
  23. El-Agraa,Ali (ed.), 2007. "The European Union," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521874434, October.
  24. Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, 05.
  25. Céline CARRERE, 2003. "Revisiting the Effects of Regional Trading Agreements on trade flows with Proper Specification of the Gravity Model," Working Papers 200310, CERDI.
  26. Ghosh, Sucharita & Yamarik, Steven, 2004. "Are regional trading arrangements trade creating?: An application of extreme bounds analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 369-395, July.
  27. Christophe Rault & Robert Sova & Ana Maria Sova, 2008. "Modeling International Trade Flows between CEEC and OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 2282, CESifo Group Munich.
  28. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Stein, Ernesto & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1996. "Regional Trading Arrangements," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt5hf1z4rv, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  29. Harry G. Johnson, 1965. "An Economic Theory of Protectionism, Tariff Bargaining, and the Formation of Customs Unions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73, pages 256.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Marjan Petreski, 2013. "Southeastern European Trade Analysis: A Role for Endogenous CEFTA-2006?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 49(5), pages 26-44, September.
  2. Selim Inançli & Mustafa Akal, 2013. "Export and Import Products Groups’ Shares of Turkey with Cee Countries After Theirs Accessions to Eu and Before," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(11), pages 1419-1438, November.
  3. Mitze, Timo, 2010. "Estimating Gravity Models of International Trade with Correlated Time-Fixed Regressors: To IV or not IV?," MPRA Paper 23540, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Richard Frensch & Jan Hanousek & Evzen Kocenda, 2013. "Specialization, gravity, and European trade in final goods," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1054, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  5. Mitze, Timo & Alecke, Björn & Untiedt, Gerhard, 2008. "Trade, FDI and Cross-Variable Linkages: A German (Macro-)Regional Perspective," MPRA Paper 12245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Suhail P & Sreejesh S, 2011. "The bilateral trade agreements and export performance of South Asian nations with special reference to India Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 14(42), pages 115-130, December.
  7. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Martin Raiser, 2010. "A Gravity Approach to Modelling International Trade in South-Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States: The Role of Geography, Policy and Institutions," Working Papers 2010/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  8. Festus Ebo Turkson, . "Trade Agreements and Bilateral Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa: Estimating the Trade Effects of the EU-ACP PTA and RTAs," Discussion Papers 12/07, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
  9. Cipollina, Maria & Laborde, David & Salvatici, Luca, 2013. "Do Preferential Trade Policies (Actually) Increase Exports? An analysis of EU trade policies," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150177, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  10. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Kimura, Fukunari, 2014. "How do free trade agreements reduce tariff rates and non-tariff barriers?," IDE Discussion Papers 446, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  11. Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2012. "Impacts of FTA utilization on firm performance," IDE Discussion Papers 366, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  12. Kazunobu Hayakawa & Fukunari Kimura & Kaoru Nabeshima, 2014. "Nonconventional provisions in regional trade agreements: Do they enhance international trade?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 113-138, May.
  13. Timo Mitze & Björn Alecke & Gerhard Untiedt, 2009. "Trade-FDI Linkages in a System of Gravity Equations for German Regional Data," Ruhr Economic Papers 0084, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  14. Florian Mölders & Ulrich Volz, 2011. "Trade creation and the status of FTAs: empirical evidence from East Asia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 429-456, September.
  15. Timo Mitze, 2009. "Endogeneity in Panel Data Models with Time-Varying and Time-Fixed Regressors: To IV or not IV?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0083, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  16. Bianka Dettmer, 2012. "The European Union's service directive: Contrasting ex ante estimates with empirical evidence," Jena Economic Research Papers 2012-019, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.
  17. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Christophe Rault & Robert Sova & Anamaria Sova, 2011. "Trade Specialisation and Economic Convergence: Evidence from two Eastern European Countries," DEGIT Conference Papers c016_071, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  18. Oxana Babecká Kucharčuková & Jan Babecký & Martin Raiser, 2012. "Gravity Approach for Modelling International Trade in South-Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States: The Role of Geography, Policy and Institutions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 277-301, April.
  19. Breusch, Trevor & Ward, Michael B & Nguyen, Hoa & Kompas, Tom, 2010. "On the fixed-effects vector decomposition," MPRA Paper 21452, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:145:y:2009:i:2:p:189-206. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.