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Measuring Trade and Trade Potential: A Survey

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  • Shiro Armstrong

Abstract

This paper provides a survey and a brief critical review of the literature on the widely used gravity models of trade, as a prelude to the justification of its use with the stochastic frontier methodology. The important papers on the theoretical foundations of the gravity model are reviewed and related to papers applied to explain determinants of trade flows. Then some shortcomings of the gravity model are discussed. The paper introduces the stochastic frontier gravity model as a way of estimating trade resistances and overcoming some of the shortcomings of conventional gravity models in their use for that purpose.

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File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/pdf/pep/apep-368.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series Asia Pacific Economic Papers with number 368.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:csg:ajrcau:368

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References

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  1. Alan V. Deardorff, 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Working Papers 5377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Peter Drysdale & Xinpeng Xu, 2004. "Taiwan'S Role In The Economic Architecture Of East Asia And The Pacific," Trade Working Papers 22865, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  3. Andrew Rose, 2005. "Which International Institutions Promote International Trade?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 682-698, 09.
  4. Rose, Andrew K, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3538, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
  6. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 49-63.
  7. James Harrigan, 2001. "Specialization and the Volume of Trade: Do the Data Obey the Laws?," NBER Working Papers 8675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Richard Baldwin & Daria Taglioni, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," NBER Working Papers 12516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 593, Boston College Department of Economics.
  10. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June.
  11. K. Kalirajan, 1999. "Stochastic varying coefficients gravity model: An application in trade analysis," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 185-193.
  12. Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D., 2003. "Augmented gravity model: An empirical application to Mercosur- European trade flows," International Trade 0309019, EconWPA.
  13. Helpman, Elhanan, 1987. "Imperfect competition and international trade: Evidence from fourteen industrial countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 62-81, March.
  14. Peter Egger, . "An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials," WIFO Working Papers 141, WIFO.
  15. Aigner, Dennis & Lovell, C. A. Knox & Schmidt, Peter, 1977. "Formulation and estimation of stochastic frontier production function models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 21-37, July.
  16. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August.
  17. Deardoff, A.V., 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," Working Papers 382, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  18. Drysdale, Peter & Garnaut, Ross, 1982. "Trade Intensities and the Analysis of Bilateral Trade Flows in a Many-Country World : A Survey," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 22(2), pages 62-84, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Miran, Bülent & Atış, Ela & Bektaş, Zerrin & Salalı, Ece & Cankurt, Murat, 2013. "An Analysis of International Raisin Trade: A Gravity Model Approach," 2013 Conference (57th), February 5-8, 2013, Sydney, Australia 152200, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  2. Groizard, José Luis & Marques, Helena & Gallego Santana, Maria, 2014. "Islands in trade: Disentangling distance from border effects," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-27, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Zwinkels, Remco C.J. & Beugelsdijk, Sjoerd, 2010. "Gravity equations: Workhorse or Trojan horse in explaining trade and FDI patterns across time and space?," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 102-115, February.
  4. Johan Fourie & Maria Santana-Gallego, 2011. "The Determinants of African Tourism," Working Papers 260, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  5. Shiro Armstrong, 2010. "Taiwan's Asia Pacific Economic Strategies Post-ECFA," EABER Working Papers 22810, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  6. Shiro Armstrong & Peter Drysdale & Kaliappa Kalirajan, 2008. "Asian Trade Structures and Trade Potential : An Initial Analysis of South and East Asian Trade," EABER Working Papers 21753, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.

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