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Ukrainian international trade: How far from the potential?

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Author Info
Maryanchyk Ivan ()
Abstract

This paper applies the gravity theory to model Ukrainian trade patterns. I estimate two specifications — Global and Ukrainian. The former is used to forecast the optimal trade volumes and compare with the actual. The latter helps analyzing factors affecting Ukrainian trade. Ukraine explored its trade potential with the EU. On the other hand, having the low potential in 1995, the country achieved even better results in this direction in 2002. Trade with CIS deteriorated despite vast possibilities predicted by the model. Another unexplored opportunity is large economies of G7, Asia, and Americas. Ukraine could benefit liberalizing trade relations with Russia (to gain in trade and reach the potential) and with EU (to safeguard achieved results). Accession to the WTO might help in exploring the potential with G7 and other big economies.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS in its series EERC Working Paper Series with number 05-14e.

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Date of creation: 18 Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:05-14e

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Postal: EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS, 47, Nakhimovsky pr-t, suite 919, Moscow, 117418 Russia
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Related research
Keywords: Ukraine international trade gravity.

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies
F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade

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References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
  3. Michalopoulos, Constantine & Tarr, David, 1997. "The economics of customs unions in the Commonwealth of Independent States," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1786, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. repec:fth:michin:403 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
  6. Helpman, Elhanan, 1987. "Imperfect competition and international trade: Evidence from fourteen industrial countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 62-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Edward Balistreri & Russell Hillberry, 2006. "Trade frictions and welfare in the gravity model: how much of the iceberg melts?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 247-265, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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