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Ukrainian international trade: How far from the potential?

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  • Maryanchyk Ivan

Abstract

This paper applies the gravity theory to model Ukrainian trade patterns. I estimate two specifications — Global and Ukrainian. The former is used to forecast the optimal trade volumes and compare with the actual. The latter helps analyzing factors affecting Ukrainian trade. Ukraine explored its trade potential with the EU. On the other hand, having the low potential in 1995, the country achieved even better results in this direction in 2002. Trade with CIS deteriorated despite vast possibilities predicted by the model. Another unexplored opportunity is large economies of G7, Asia, and Americas. Ukraine could benefit liberalizing trade relations with Russia (to gain in trade and reach the potential) and with EU (to safeguard achieved results). Accession to the WTO might help in exploring the potential with G7 and other big economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Maryanchyk Ivan, 2005. "Ukrainian international trade: How far from the potential?," EERC Working Paper Series 05-14e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    • Handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:05-14e
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ukraine; international trade; gravity.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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