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The Impact of EU Accession of Selected CEECs on Bilateral Economic Relations with the EU. A Dynamic Gravity Approach

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  • Peter Egger

    (WIFO)

Abstract

A dynamic panel data approach was applied in order to evaluate the impact of EU accession of selected Central and Eastern European countries on their bilateral economic relations in terms of trade and FDI with the EU member states. Assuming the accession for 2005 and taking projections for the GDPs of the CEECs in the case of accession and non-accession, we obtain the following results in real terms by our model simulation: Bilateral exports by the average EU country to the selected CEECs increase by an additional ½ percent p.a. The effect on the growth rate of outward stocks of FDI is about triple that figure (+1½ percent p.a.).

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by WIFO in its journal Quarterly.

Volume (Year): 5 (2000)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 135-143

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Handle: RePEc:wfo:wquart:y:2000:i:3:p:135-143

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Keywords: The Impact of EU Accession of Selected CEECs on Bilateral Economic Relations with the EU. A Dynamic Gravity Approach;

References

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  1. Alan V. Deardorff, 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Working Papers 5377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Gros, Daniel & Gonciarz, Andrzej, 1996. "A note on the trade potential of Central and Eastern Europe," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 709-721, December.
  3. Fritz Breuss & Peter Egger, 1999. "How Reliable Are Estimations of East-West Trade Potentials Based on Cross-Section Gravity Analyses?," Empirica, Springer, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 81-94, June.
  4. Helpman, Elhanan, 1985. "Multinational Corporations and Trade Structure," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 443-57, July.
  5. Peter Egger, 2001. "European exports and outward foreign direct investment: A dynamic panel data approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 427-449, September.
  6. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1986. "The Multinational Firm," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 805-33, November.
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  9. Riezman, R.G. & Summers, P.M. & Whiteman, C.H., 1991. "The Engine of Growth or Its Handmaiden? A Time Series Assessment of Export-Led Growth," Working Papers, University of Iowa, Department of Economics 92-27, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
  10. S. Lael Brainard, 1993. "A Simple Theory of Multinational Corporations and Trade with a Trade-Off Between Proximity and Concentration," NBER Working Papers 4269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Muhammed Islam, 1998. "Export expansion and economic growth: testing for cointegration and causality," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 415-425.
  12. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  13. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August.
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