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International Evidenceon the Determinants of Trade Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Eswar S Prasad
  • Mr. Jeffery A. Gable

Abstract

This paper provides some new empirical perspectives on the relationship between international trade and macroeconomic fluctuations in industrial economies. First, a comprehensive set of stylized facts concerning fluctuations in trade variables and their determinants are presented. A measure of the quantitative importance of international trade for the propagation of domestic business cycles is then constructed, focusing on the role of external trade as a catalyst for cyclical recoveries. Finally, structural vector autoregression models are used to characterize the joint dynamics of output, exchange rates, and trade variables in response to different types of macroeconomic shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Eswar S Prasad & Mr. Jeffery A. Gable, 1997. "International Evidenceon the Determinants of Trade Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 1997/172, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1997/172
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    Cited by:

    1. Michele Peruzzi & Alessio Terzi, 2018. "Growth Accelerations Strategies," CID Working Papers 91a, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    2. Edith Skriner, 2008. "Forecasting Global Flows," FIW Working Paper series 009, FIW.
    3. Huh, Hyeon-seung & Kim, David & Kim, Won Joong & Park, Cyn-Young, 2015. "A factor-augmented VAR analysis of business cycle synchronization in east Asia and implications for a regional currency union," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 449-468.
    4. Peter Egger, 2000. "Teilprojekt 4: Bilaterale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen zwischen der EU und ausgewählten mittel- und osteuropäischen Ländern (MOEL): Entwicklungen der letzten Jahre und Versuch einer Prognose," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 19262, April.
    5. José García-Solanes & Jesús Rodríguez-López & José Torres, 2011. "Demand Shocks and Trade Balance Dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 739-766, September.
    6. Ivrendi, Mehmet & Guloglu, Bulent, 2010. "Monetary shocks, exchange rates and trade balances: Evidence from inflation targeting countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1144-1155, September.
    7. Skriner, Edith, 2007. "Forecasting Global Flows," Economics Series 214, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    8. Peter Egger, 2000. "The Impact of EU Accession of Selected CEECs on Bilateral Economic Relations with the EU. A Dynamic Gravity Approach," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 5(3), pages 135-143, July.
    9. Massimo Giuliodori, "undated". "The Empirical Relevance of a basic sticky-price intertemporal model," Working Papers 2001_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    10. Peruzzi, Michele & Terzi, Alessio, 2021. "Accelerating Economic Growth: The Science beneath the Art," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    11. Fisher, L. A. & Huh, H-S., 2002. "Real exchange rates, trade balances and nominal shocks: evidence for the G-7," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 497-518, August.
    12. Montalbano, Pierluigi, 2011. "Trade Openness and Developing Countries' Vulnerability: Concepts, Misconceptions, and Directions for Research," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1489-1502, September.
    13. Huh, Hyeon-seung & Kim, David & Kim, Won Joong & Park, Cyn-Young, 2013. "A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression Analysis of Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia and Implications for a Regional Currency Union," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 385, Asian Development Bank.
    14. Gabe de Bondt & Philip Vermeulen, 2021. "Business cycle duration dependence and foreign recessions," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 1-19, February.
    15. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 251-285, May.
    16. Mthuli Ncube & Eliphas Ndou, 2013. "Working Paper 169 - Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks on South African Trade Balance," Working Paper Series 448, African Development Bank.
    17. Kunofiwa Tsaurai, 2021. "Determinants of Trade Openness in Transitional Economies: Does the Complementarity between Foreign Direct Investment and Human Capital Development Matter?," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(1), pages 318-330.
    18. Hyeon-seung Huh & Won Soon Kwon, 2015. "Sources of Fluctuations in the Real Exchange Rates and Trade Balances of the G-7: A Sign Restriction VAR Approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 715-737, September.
    19. Fabrizio Erbetta & Luca Agnello, 2001. "The martingales: theoretical and empirical characteristics," CERIS Working Paper 200107, CNR-IRCrES Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Torino (TO) ITALY - former Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
    20. Luigi Bocola, 2006. "Trade and Business-Cycle Comovement: Evidence from the EU," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 96(6), pages 25-62, November-.
    21. Giovanna Segre, 2000. "Foreign Direct Investment and Trade in the EU: Are They Complementary or Substitute in Business Cycles Fluctuations?," CERIS Working Paper 200007, CNR-IRCrES Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Torino (TO) ITALY - former Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; trade; supply shock; trade variable; Trade balance; business cycles; exchange rates; OECD industrial economies; trade ratio; business cycle recovery; net trade balance; exchange rate depreciation; demand condition; merchandise trade number; trade volume; trade dynamics; trade balance fluctuation; trade-weighted average; trade balance to output growth; Exports; Real exchange rates; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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