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International Evidence on the Determinants of Trade Dynamics

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  • Eswar S. Prasad

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Jeffery A. Gable

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

This paper provides some new empirical perspectives on the relationship between international trade and macroeconomic fluctuations in industrial economies. First, a comprehensive set of stylized facts concerning fluctuations in trade variables and their determinants is presented. A measure of the quantitative importance of international trade for the propagation of domestic business cycles is then constructed, focusing on the role of external trade as a catalyst for cyclical recoveries. Finally, structural vector autoregression models are used to characterize the joint dynamics of output, exchange rates, and trade variables in response to different types of macroeconomic shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund.

Volume (Year): 45 (1998)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 401-439

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Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:45:y:1998:i:3:p:401-439

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Cited by:
  1. Edith Skriner, 2008. "Forecasting Global Flows," FIW Working Paper series 009, FIW.
  2. Mthuli Ncube & Eliphas Ndou, 2013. "Working Paper 169 - Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks on South African Trade Balance," Working Paper Series 448, African Development Bank.
  3. Hyeon-seung Huh & David Kim & Won Joong Kim & Cyn-Young Park, 2013. "A Factor-augmented VAR Analysis of Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia and Implications for a Regional Currency Union," Working papers 2013rwp-58, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
  4. C. John McDermott & Eswar Prasad & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1999. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries - Some Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 99/35, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Huh, Hyeon-seung & Kim, David & Kim, Won Joong & Park, Cyn-Young, 2013. "A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression Analysis of Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia and Implications for a Regional Currency Union," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 385, Asian Development Bank.
  6. Luigi Bocola, 2006. "Trade and Business-Cycle Comovement: Evidence from the EU," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 96(6), pages 25-62, November-.
  7. Ivrendi, Mehmet & Guloglu, Bulent, 2010. "Monetary shocks, exchange rates and trade balances: Evidence from inflation targeting countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1144-1155, September.
  8. Fisher, L. A. & Huh, H-S., 2002. "Real exchange rates, trade balances and nominal shocks: evidence for the G-7," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 497-518, August.
  9. Fabrizio Erbetta & Luca Agnello, 2001. "The martingales: theoretical and empirical characteristics," CERIS Working Paper 200107, Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO).
  10. Skriner, Edith, 2007. "Forecasting Global Flows," Economics Series 214, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  11. Montalbano, Pierluigi, 2011. "Trade Openness and Developing Countries' Vulnerability: Concepts, Misconceptions, and Directions for Research," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1489-1502, September.
  12. Massimo Giuliodori, . "The Empirical Relevance of a basic sticky-price intertemporal model," Working Papers 2001_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  13. José García-Solanes & Jesús Rodríguez-López & José Torres, 2011. "Demand Shocks and Trade Balance Dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 739-766, September.
  14. Giovanna Segre, 2000. "Foreign Direct Investment and Trade in the EU: Are They Complementary or Substitute in Business Cycles Fluctuations?," CERIS Working Paper 200007, Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO).

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