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A Tale of Parallel Integration Processes. A Gravity Analysis of EU Trade with Mediterranean and Central and Eastern European Countries

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Author Info

  • Ferragina, Anna Maria

    ()
    (University of Rome Tor Vergata)

  • Giovannetti, Giorgia

    ()
    (University of Florence)

  • Pastore, Francesco

    ()
    (University of Naples II)

Abstract

Despite the EU emphasis on the 1995 Barcelona process, trade integration with the Mediterranean (MED) countries is still underdeveloped. To contrast the success of EU integration with MED countries and that with the new EU members, we compute the trade potential of these EU partners from 1995 to 2002 using an "out-of-sample" methodology. The coefficients are taken from different panel estimators of the gravity equation relative to intra-EU trade. Our analysis suggests the existence of sizeable, unexploited trade potential with both groups of partners, although the ratio of potential to actual trade with the MED countries is much larger (from 1.7 to 2.5 times), more dispersed and stable compared to that with the CEECs. Moreover, the potential tends to converge to actual trade in a much longer time in the case of MED countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 1829.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 2009, 5 (2), Article 2
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1829

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Keywords: EU eastward enlargement; MED agreements; gravity equation; trade potential;

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References

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  1. Brenton, Paul & Di Mauro, Francesca, 1999. "The Potential Magnitude and Impact of FDI flows to CEECs," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 14, pages 59-74.
  2. Wang, Zhen Kun & Winters, L. Alan, 1991. "The Trading Potential of Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Egger, Peter, 2000. "A note on the proper econometric specification of the gravity equation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 25-31, January.
  4. Gros, Daniel & Gonciarz, Andrzej, 1996. "A note on the trade potential of Central and Eastern Europe," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 709-721, December.
  5. Brenton, Paul & Gros, Daniel, 1997. "Trade Reorientation and Recovery in Transition Economies," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 65-76, Summer.
  6. Claudia M. Buch & Jörn Kleinert & Farid Toubal, 2003. "The Distance Puzzle: On the Interpretation of the Distance Coefficient in Gravity Equations," Kiel Working Papers 1159, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  7. Greenaway, David & Milner, Chris, 2002. "Regionalism and Gravity," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 574-85, December.
  8. Robert C. Feenstra & James R. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 430-447, May.
  9. Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, 05.
  10. Peter Egger, . "An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials," WIFO Working Papers 141, WIFO.
  11. Baldwin, Richard E., 1997. "Comment on Gros and Gonciarz," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 187-188, February.
  12. Lionel Fontagné & André Cartapanis & Patrick Artus, 1999. "L'élargissement de l'Union européenne en Europe centrale : les enjeux," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(6), pages 1095-1099.
  13. Hamilton, C.B. & Winters, L.A., 1992. "Opening Up International Trade in Eastern Europe," Papers 511, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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Cited by:
  1. Pierluigi Montalbano & Silvia Nenci, 2012. "Assessing the Trade Impact of the European Neighborhood Policy on EU-MED Free Trade Area," Working Paper Series 3112, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
  2. Alessandro Romagnoli & Luisa Mengoni, 2009. "The challenge of economic integration in the MENA region: from GAFTA and EU-MFTA to small scale Arab Unions," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 69-83, May.
  3. Sekkat, Khalid, 2012. "Manufactured Exports and FDI in Southern Mediterranean Countries: Evolution, determinants and prospects," CEPS Papers 6849, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  4. Ruhul Salim & Shahriar Kabir, 2010. "The Immediate Impact Of Euro On Intra-Regional Trade: An Event Study Approach," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 43-55, September.
  5. Andreas Breitenfellner & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Peter Mooslechner & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2008. "The Impact of EU Enlargement in 2004 and 2007 on FDI and Migration Flows Gravity Analysis of Factor Mobility," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 101–120.
  6. Rym Ayadi & Luc De Wulf & Moez El Elj & Michael Gasiorek & Ahmed Ghoneim & Javier Lopez Gonzalez & Selen Guerin & Peter Holmes & Hammad Kassal & Maryla Maliszewska & Mahmut Tekce, 2009. "Economic Integration in the Euro-Mediterranean Region," CASE Network Reports 0089, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.

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