Anna Ferragina () (ISSM-CNR) Giorgia Giovannetti () (University of Florence and Italian Foreign Trade Commission) Francesco Pastore () (Seconda Università di Napoli and IZA Bonn)
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Despite the EU emphasis on the 1995 Barcelona process, trade integration with the Mediterranean (MED) countries is still underdeveloped. To contrast the success of EU integration with MED countries and that with the new EU members, we compute the trade potential of these EU partners from 1995 to 2002 using an “out-of-sample” methodology. The coefficients are taken from different panel estimators of the gravity equation relative to intra- EU trade. Our analysis suggests the existence of sizeable, unexploited trade potential with both groups of partners, although the ratio of potential to actual trade with the MED countries is much larger (from 1.7 to 2.5 times), more dispersed and stable compared to that with the CEECs. Moreover, the potential tends to converge to actual trade in a much longer time in the case of MED countries.
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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number
1829.
Find related papers by JEL classification: C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation P45 - Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - International Linkages P52 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies
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