The Impact of EU Enlargement in 2004 and 2007 on FDI and Migration Flows - Gravity Analysis of Factor Mobility
AbstractThis paper contributes to the ex post assessment of macroeconomic effects triggered by the 2004 and 2007 wave of EU enlargement, with a specific focus on factor trade, i.e. the crossborder mobility of labor and capital. While most of the potential for trade in goods and for foreign direct investment (FDI) was tapped ahead of actual enlargement, above all migration effects are spread out over a longer period, given transition arrangements for labor market integration. We use (innovative) gravity models to establish the potential for factor trade and crosscheck the results against recent developments. Our key finding is the uneven development of capital and labor mobility since EU enlargement. While migration potentials are materializing as expected, FDI stocks have remained relatively stable at already high levels. Furthermore, we observe a nonlinear relationship between migration and per capita income that may be explained on theoretical grounds and attributed to institutional factors. While the highest-income countries (above all Slovenia and the Czech Republic) are already turning into immigration countries, the low-income countries and those last to join the EU (Bulgaria and Romania) are likely to see further emigration and more FDI inflows. JEL classification: C33, F15, O11
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its journal Monetary Policy and the Economy.
Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Postal: Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Documentation Management and Communications Services, Otto-Wagner Platz 3, A-1090 Vienna, Austria
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
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