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A Tale of Parallel Integration Processes: A Gravity Analysis of EU Trade with Mediterranean and Central and Eastern European Countries

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  • Pastore Francesco

    (Seconda Università di Napoli and IZA)

  • Ferragina Anna Maria

    (Università di Salerno)

  • Giovannetti Giorgia

    (Università di Firenze)

Abstract

Despite the EU emphasis on the 1995 Barcelona process, trade integration with the Mediterranean (MED) countries is still underdeveloped. To contrast the success of EU integration with MED countries and that with the new EU members, we compute the trade potential of these EU partners from 1995 to 2002 using an "out-of-sample" methodology. The coefficients are taken from different panel estimators of the gravity equation relative to intra-EU trade. Our analysis suggests the existence of sizeable, unexploited trade potential with both groups of partners, although the ratio of potential to actual trade with the MED countries is much larger (from 1.7 to 2.5 times), more dispersed and stable compared to that with the CEECs.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Review of Middle East Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 5 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (September)
Pages: 21-44

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:rmeecf:v:5:y:2009:i:2:n:2

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  1. Hamilton, C.B. & Winters, L.A., 1992. "Opening Up International Trade in Eastern Europe," Papers 511, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  2. Claudia M. Buch & Jörn Kleinert & Farid Toubal, 2003. "The Distance Puzzle: On the Interpretation of the Distance Coefficient in Gravity Equations," Kiel Working Papers 1159, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Lionel Fontagné & André Cartapanis & Patrick Artus, 1999. "L'élargissement de l'Union européenne en Europe centrale : les enjeux," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(6), pages 1095-1099.
  4. Gros, Daniel & Gonciarz, Andrzej, 1996. "A note on the trade potential of Central and Eastern Europe," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 709-721, December.
  5. Wang, Z.K. & Winters, L.A., 1992. "The Trading Potential of Eastern Europe," Discussion Papers 92-21, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  6. Greenaway, David & Milner, Chris, 2002. "Regionalism and Gravity," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 574-85, December.
  7. Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, 05.
  8. Peter Egger, 2002. "An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 297-312, 02.
  9. Baldwin, Richard E., 1997. "Comment on Gros and Gonciarz," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 187-188, February.
  10. Brenton, Paul & Gros, Daniel, 1997. "Trade Reorientation and Recovery in Transition Economies," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 65-76, Summer.
  11. Peter Egger, . "A Note on the Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Equation," WIFO Working Papers 108, WIFO.
  12. Brenton, Paul & Di Mauro, Francesca, 1999. "The Potential Magnitude and Impact of FDI flows to CEECs," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 14, pages 59-74.
  13. Robert C. Feenstra & James R. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 430-447, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Pierluigi Montalbano & Silvia Nenci, 2012. "Assessing the Trade Impact of the European Neighborhood Policy on EU-MED Free Trade Area," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0147, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
  2. Ruhul Salim & Shahriar Kabir, 2010. "The Immediate Impact Of Euro On Intra-Regional Trade: An Event Study Approach," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 43-55, September.
  3. Rym Ayadi & Luc De Wulf & Moez El Elj & Michael Gasiorek & Ahmed Ghoneim & Javier Lopez Gonzalez & Selen Guerin & Peter Holmes & Hammad Kassal & Maryla Maliszewska & Mahmut Tekce, 2009. "Economic Integration in the Euro-Mediterranean Region," CASE Network Reports 0089, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  4. Andreas Breitenfellner & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Peter Mooslechner & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2008. "The Impact of EU Enlargement in 2004 and 2007 on FDI and Migration Flows Gravity Analysis of Factor Mobility," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 101–120.
  5. Sekkat, Khalid, 2012. "Manufactured Exports and FDI in Southern Mediterranean Countries: Evolution, determinants and prospects," CEPS Papers 6849, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  6. Alessandro Romagnoli & Luisa Mengoni, 2009. "The challenge of economic integration in the MENA region: from GAFTA and EU-MFTA to small scale Arab Unions," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 69-83, May.

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