Agricultural Applications of Value-at-Risk Analysis: A Perspective
AbstractValue-at-Risk (VaR) determines the probability of a portfolio of assets losing a certain amount in a given time period due to adverse market conditions with a particular level of confidence. Value-at-Risk has received considerable attention from financial economists and financial practitioners for its use in risk reporting, in particular the risks of derivatives. This paper provides a "state-of-the-art" review of VaR estimation techniques and empirical findings found in the finance literature. The ability of VaR estimates to represent large losses associated with tail events varies among procedure, confidence level, and data used. To date, there is no consensus to the most appropriate estimation technique. Potential applications of Value-at-Risk are suggested in the context of agricultural risk management. In the wake of the Hedge-to-Arrive crisis, the lifting of agricultural trade options by the CFTC, and the decreased government participation, VaR seems to have a place in the agricultural risk manager's toolkit.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 9805002.
Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: 04 May 1998
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on pc; to print on HP Laserjet; pages: 14. Office for Futures and Options Research (OFOR) at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Working Paper 98-04. For a complete list of OFOR working papers see
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://220.127.116.11
Value-at-Risk; risk management; estimation procedures;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
- Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
- Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1998.
"How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?,"
New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires
98-080, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2000. "How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 12-22, February.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-45, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1998. "How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?," NBER Working Papers 6844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Patricia Jackson & David Maude & William Perraudin, 1998. "Bank Capital and Value at Risk," Bank of England working papers 79, Bank of England.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- repec:fip:fedhpr:y:1996:i:may:p:334-362 is not listed on IDEAS
- Gregory P. Hopper, 1996. "Value at risk: a new methodology for measuring portfolio risk," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jul, pages 19-31.
- Thomas J. Linsmeier & Neil D. Pearson, 1996. "Risk Measurement: An Introduction to Value at Risk," Finance 9609004, EconWPA.
- Francis X. Diebold & Andrew Hickman & Atsushi Inoue & Til Schuermann, 1997. "Converting 1-Day Volatility to h-Day Volatitlity: Scaling by Root-h is Worse Than You Think," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Linsmeier, Thomas J. & Pearson, Neil D., 1996. "Risk measurement: an introduction to value at risk," ACE Reports 14796, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
- Darryll Hendricks, 1996. "Evaluation of value-at-risk models using historical data," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 39-69.
- Subu Venkataraman, 1997. "Value at risk for a mixture of normal distributions: the use of quasi- Bayesian estimation techniques," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Mar, pages 2-13.
- Leif Erec Heimfarth & Oliver Musshoff, 2011. "Weather index-based insurances for farmers in the North China Plain: An analysis of risk reduction potential and basis risk," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 71(2), pages 218-239, July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.