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Market Risk Measurement and the Cattle Feeding Margin: An Application of Value-at-Risk

Author

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  • Mark R. Manfredo.

    (Arizona State University)

  • Raymond M. Leuthold

    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

Abstract

Value-at-Risk, known as VaR, gives a prediction of potential portfolio losses, with a certain level of confidence, that may be encountered over a specified time period due to adverse price movements in the portfolio's assets. For example, a VaR of 1 million dollars at the 95% level of confidence implies that overall portfolio losses should not exceed 1 million dollars more than 5% of the time over a given holding period. This research examines the effectiveness of VaR measures, developed using alternative estimation techniques, in predicting large losses in the cattle feeding margin. Results show that several estimation techniques, both parametric and non-parametric, provide well- calibrated estimates of VaR such that violations (losses exceeding the VaR estimate) are commensurate with the desired level of confidence. In particular, estimates developed using JP Morgan's Risk Metrics methodology appear robust for instruments that have linear payoff structures such as cash commodity prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark R. Manfredo. & Raymond M. Leuthold, 1999. "Market Risk Measurement and the Cattle Feeding Margin: An Application of Value-at-Risk," Finance 9908002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:9908002
    Note: Type of Document - PDF; prepared on IBM PC ; pages: 29 ; figures: included. Office for Futures and Options Research (OFOR) at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Working Paper 99-04. For a complete list of OFOR working papers see http://w3.ag.uiuc.edu/ACE/ofor
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Odening, Martin & Hinrichs, Jan, 2003. "Die Quantifizierung von Marktrisiken in der Tierproduktion mittels Value-at-Risk und Extreme-Value-Theory," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 52(02), pages 1-11.
    2. Odening, Martin & Hinrichs, Jan, 2002. "Assessment Of Market Risk In Hog Production Using Value-At-Risk And Extreme Value Theory," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19907, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Odening, M. & Mußhoff, O., 2001. "Value at Risk – ein nützliches Instrument des Risikomanagement in Agrarbetrieben?," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 37.
    4. Manfredo, Mark R. & Garcia, Philip & Leuthold, Raymond M., 2000. "Time-Varying Multiproduct Hedge Ratio Estimation In The Soybean Complex: A Simplified Approach," 2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois 18933, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.

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    • G - Financial Economics

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