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Porovnanie prístupov na výpočet hodnoty v riziku menových portfólií
[Comparison of approaches for value-at-risk estimation of foreign exchange portfolios]

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  • Marián Rimarčík

Abstract

In this paper historical performance of eleven approaches for estimation of one-day 95% value-at-risk is evaluated. Random sample of 1000 foreign exchange portfolios consisting of positions in EUR and USD with CZK as a base currency was considered. Since foreign exchange portfolio consists of linear instruments, historical simulation and the variance-covariance method for VaR estimation were investigated. Performance of all approaches was evaluated using seven performance criteria. With minimal degree of simplification we can say that variance-covariance method using exponentially weighted averages with is the best approach. This approach produces risk estimates which are systematically lowest ones and with high time volatility. It also achieves perfect coverage (95 %) and the highest correlation between risk measure and absolute value of the outcome. RiskMetrics variance-covariance approach was dominant in spite of violation of normality assumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Marián Rimarčík, 2005. "Porovnanie prístupov na výpočet hodnoty v riziku menových portfólií [Comparison of approaches for value-at-risk estimation of foreign exchange portfolios]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2005(3), pages 323-336.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2005:y:2005:i:3:id:514:p:323-336
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.514
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas J. Linsmeier & Neil D. Pearson, 1996. "Risk Measurement: An Introduction to Value at Risk," Finance 9609004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Winfried G. Hallerbach, 1999. "Decomposing Portfolio Value-at-Risk: A General Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-034/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Linsmeier, Thomas J. & Pearson, Neil D., 1996. "Risk measurement: an introduction to value at risk," ACE Reports 14796, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monte Carlo simulation; value-at-risk; historical simulation; variance-covariance method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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