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Aggregate agricultural supply response in developing countries : a survey of selected issues

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Author Info
Schiff, Maurice
Montenegro, Claudio E.

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Abstract

The authors review several studies of the aggregate agricultural supply response. Using both economic and econometric reasons, they argue that time series estimation typically generates a downward-biased estimate of the response to a credible reform. Even though time series estimates can provide an accurate picture of past behavoiral relations, they do not provide an adequate basis for forecasting the impact of policy reform. This is especially true in developing countries, where policy reforms involve large changes and have included agricultural price reform, industrial trade liberalization, financial sector reform, and macroeconomic stabilization. Under those circumstances, parameters values obtained under the former policy regime have little relevance in the new regime. The authors also argue that investment in public goods should be viewed as complementary to, not competitive with, price policy. They claim that to select the policy with the biggest impact on output makes no sense. They provide what they consider to be better criteria for choosing the best from alternative policies.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 1485.

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Date of creation: 31 Jul 1995
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1485

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Related research
Keywords: Environmental Economics&Policies; Payment Systems&Infrastructure; Economic Theory&Research; Markets and Market Access; Labor Policies; Economic Theory&Research; Environmental Economics&Policies; Access to Markets; Markets and Market Access; Inequality;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Boussard, J M, 1985. "Is Agricultural Production Responsive to Prices?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press for the Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 12(1-2), pages 31-44.
  2. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Platteau, J.P., 1993. "Sub-Saharan Afraica as a Special Case: The Crucial Role of (Infra)Structural Constraints," Papers 128, Notre-Dame de la Paix, Sciences Economiques et Sociales.
  4. Krueger, Anne O & Schiff, Maurice & Valdes, Alberto, 1988. "Agricultural Incentives in Developing Countries: Measuring the Effect of Sectoral and Economywide Policies," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(3), pages 255-71, September.
  5. Cavallo, Domingo & Mundlak, Yair, 1982. "Agriculture and economic growth in an open economy: the case of Argentina," Research reports 36, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Thiele, Rainer, 2003. "Price Incentives, Non-Price Factors, And Agricultural Production In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Cointegration Analysis," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25901, International Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Surajit Deb, 2003. "Terms of Trade and Supply Response of Indian Agriculture: Analysis in Cointegration Framework," Working papers 115, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Nouve, Kofi & Staatz, John, 2003. "The Food Security Debate In West Africa Following The Wto Agreements On Agriculture," Staff Papers 11746, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Surajit Deb, 2002. "The Debate on Agriculture-Industry Terms of Trade in India," Working papers 109, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Rainer Thiele, 2000. "Estimating the Aggregate Agricultural Supply Response: A Survey of Techniques and Results for Developing Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1016, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  6. David Tschirley & Anne Marie del Castillo, 2007. "Cotton in Zambia: LOCAL AND REGIONAL FOOD AID PROCUREMENT: AN ASSESSMENT OF EXPERIENCE IN AFRICA AND ELEMENTS OF GOOD DONOR PRACTICE," International Development Collaborative Working Papers ZM-FSRP-WP-27, Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University. [Downloadable!]
  7. David Tschirley, 2007. "Local and Regional Food Aid Procurement: An Assessment of Experience in Africa and Elements of Good Donor Practice," International Development Working Papers 91, Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University. [Downloadable!]
  8. M. Branchi & G. Gabriele & V. Spiezia, 1999. "Traditional Agricultural Exports, External Dependency And Domestic Price Policies. African Coffee Exports In A Comparative Perspective," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 140, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. [Downloadable!]
  9. Roman Keeney & Thomas W. Hertel, 2008. "U.S. Market Potential For Dried Distillers Grain With Solubles," Working Papers 08-13, Purdue University, College of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics. [Downloadable!]
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