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The Demand for Vice: Inter-Commodity Interactions with Uncertainty

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Author Info
Kenneth W. Clements () (Department of Economics, The University of Western Australia)
Yihui Lan () (Department of Economics, The University of Western Australia)
Xueyan Zhao (Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University)

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Abstract

This paper introduces a simulation procedure in the context of a demand system for vice -- marijuana, tobacco and alcohol -- to formally account for the inherent uncertainty in marijuanarelated data and parameters. This entails using existing econometric estimates pertaining to the consumption of alcohol and tobacco, and the much more limited information on marijuana. As an illustrative application of the framework, we simulate the impact on the consumption of vice of a reduction in the price of marijuana; changes in pre-existing taxes on tobacco and alcohol; legalisation of marijuana, which is then subject to taxation; and a tax tradeoff involving the introduction of a revenue-neutral tax on marijuana that is offset by reduced alcohol taxation. The revenue-maximising tax rate of about 50 percent is estimated to yield additional revenue of about 15 percent of the pre-existing proceeds from vice taxation. The role of uncertainty surrounding preference interactions within vice, as well as the uncertainties regarding marijuana data, is highlighted by providing the whole distribution of each endogenous variable.

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Paper provided by The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics in its series Economics Discussion / Working Papers with number 05-30.

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Length: 66 pages
Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:05-30

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
K0 - Law and Economics - - General
I0 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General
D5 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium
C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming

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  1. Cameron, Lisa & Williams, Jenny, 2001. "Cannabis, Alcohol and Cigarettes: Substitutes or Complements?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(236), pages 19-34, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Xueyan Zhao & Mark N. Harris, 2004. "Demand for Marijuana, Alcohol and Tobacco: Participation, Levels of Consumption and Cross-equation Correlations," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(251), pages 394-410, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Frank J. Chaloupka & Rosalie Liccardo Pacula & Matthew C. Farrelly & Lloyd D. Johnston & Patrick M. O'Malley, 1999. "Do Higher Cigarette Prices Encourage Youth to Use Marijuana?," NBER Working Papers 6939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bewley, Ronald & Fiebig, Denzil G, 1990. "Why Are Long-run Parameter Estimates So Disparate?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 345-49, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Jones, Andrew M, 1989. "A Systems Approach to the Demand for Alcohol and Tobacco," Bulletin of Economic Research, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2), pages 85-105, April.
  6. Bajada, Christopher, 1999. "Estimates of the Underground Economy in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(231), pages 369-84, December.
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    Other versions:
    • Chaloupka, Frank J. & Warner, Kenneth E., 2000. "The economics of smoking," Handbook of Health Economics, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 29, pages 1539-1627 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Kenneth W. Clements & Yihui Lan & Xueyan Zhao, 2005. "The Demand for Vice: Inter-Commodity Interactions with Uncertainty," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 05-30, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Clements, K.W. & Selvanathan, S., 1991. "The Economic Determinants Of Alcohol Consumption," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 35(02), August. [Downloadable!]
  11. Brown, Alan & Deaton, Angus S, 1972. "Surveys in Applied Economics: Models of Consumer Behaviour," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 82(328), pages 1145-1236, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Clements, Kenneth W & Johnson, Lester W, 1983. "The Demand for Beer, Wine, and Spirits: A Systemwide Analysis," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(3), pages 273-304, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Jeffrey A. Miron, 1999. "The Effect of Alcohol Prohibition on Alcohol Consumption," NBER Working Papers 7130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Sandra L. Decker & Amy Ellen Schwartz, 2000. "Cigarettes and Alcohol: Substitutes or Complements?," NBER Working Papers 7535, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Jenny Williams & Parvin Mahmoudi, 2004. "Economic Relationship Between Alcohol and Cannabis Revisited," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(248), pages 36-48, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Henry Saffer & Frank Chaloupka, 1998. "Demographic Differentials in the Demand for Alcohol and Illicit Drugs," NBER Working Papers 6432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Matthew C. Farrelly & Jeremy W. Bray & Gary A. Zarkin & Brett W. Wendling & Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, 1999. "The Effects of Prices and Policies on the Demand for Marijuana: Evidence from the National Household Surveys on Drug Abuse," NBER Working Papers 6940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. John Geweke, 1999. "Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development,and communication," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-73. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Griffiths, William & Zhao, Xueyan, 2000. " A Unified Approach to Sensitivity Analysis in Equilibrium Displacement Models: Comment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, American Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 82(1), pages 236-40, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Kenneth W. Clements, 2004. "Three Facts About Marijuana Prices," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 04-06, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  22. Henry Saffer & Frank Chaloupka, 1995. "The Demand for Illicit Drugs," NBER Working Papers 5238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  23. Duffy, Martyn, 1991. "Advertising and the Consumption of Tobacco and Alcoholic Drink: A System-Wide Analysis," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 38(4), pages 369-85, November.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kenneth W Clements & Yihui Lan & Xueyan Zhao, 2006. "The Demand for Vice: Inter-Commodity Interactions with Uncertainty," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 06-30, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Kenneth W. Clements & Xueyan Zhao, 2005. "Economic Aspects of Marijuana," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 05-28, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. James Fogarty, 2004. "The Own-Price Elasticity of Alcohol: A Meta-Analysis," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 04-01, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. George Verikios, 2004. "A Model of the World Wool Market," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 04-24, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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