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Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam

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Listed:
  • James Thurlow
  • Finn Tarp
  • Simon McCoy
  • Manh Hai Nguyen
  • Clemens Breisinger
  • Channing Arndt

Abstract

Economic growth in Vietnam has been fairly resilient to the global commodity and financial crises, but it is unclear why. In addition, the impact of the crises on employment and poverty is in dispute. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to decompose impacts and estimate distributional outcomes. Our results indicate that the 2008 commodity crisis increased employment and reduced poverty by favouring labour-intensive exports, especially in agriculture. The 2009 financial crisis reversed these gains.

Suggested Citation

  • James Thurlow & Finn Tarp & Simon McCoy & Manh Hai Nguyen & Clemens Breisinger & Channing Arndt, 2010. "Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2010-098, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2010-098
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maros Ivanic & Will Martin, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low‐income countries1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 405-416, November.
    2. Vu, Linh & Glewwe, Paul, 2011. "Impacts of Rising Food Prices on Poverty and Welfare in Vietnam," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 1-14, April.
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    7. Arndt, Channing & Benfica, Rui & Maximiano, Nelson & Nucifora, Antonio M.D. & Thurlow, James, 2008. "Higher fuel and food prices: Economic impacts and responses for Mozambique," IFPRI discussion papers 836, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Abbott, Philip & Bentzen, Jeanet & Tarp, Finn, 2009. "Trade and Development: Lessons from Vietnam's Past Trade Agreements," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 341-353, February.
    9. Channing Arndt & Rui Benfica & Nelson Maximiano & Antonio M. D. Nucifora & James T. Thurlow, 2008. "Higher fuel and food prices: impacts and responses for Mozambique," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 497-511, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Engelke, Wilfried & Al-Bataly, Abdulmajeed, 2012. "Managing transition in Yemen: An assessment of the costs of conflict and development scenarios for the future," IFPRI discussion papers 1210, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2013. "Essays on Farm Household Decision-Making: Evidence from Vietnam," OSF Preprints 96azx, Center for Open Science.
    3. McKay, Andy & Tarp, Finn, 2014. "Distributional impacts of the 2008 global food price spike in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 030, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. World Bank, 2012. "Republic of Yemen - Joint Social and Economic Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 12284, The World Bank Group.
    5. World Bank & United Nations & European Union & Islamic Development Bank, 2012. "Joint Social and Economic Assessment for the Republic of Yemen," World Bank Publications - Reports 11920, The World Bank Group.
    6. Rodriguez-Takeuchi, Laura & Imai, Katsushi S., 2013. "Food price surges and poverty in urban Colombia: New evidence from household survey data," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 227-236.
    7. Andy McKay & Finn Tarp, 2014. "Distributional Impacts of the 2008 Global Food Price Spike in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-030, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Finn Tarp, 2018. "Vietnam: The dragon that rose from the ashes," WIDER Working Paper Series 126, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Bryan, Elizabeth & De Pinto, Alessandro & Ringler, Claudia & Asuming-Brempong, Samuel & Bendaoud, Luís Artur & Givá, Nicia & Anh, Dao The & Mai, Nguyen Ngoc & Asenso-Okyere, Kwadwo & Sarpong, Daniel, 2012. "Institutions for agricultural mitigation: Potential and challenges in four countries," CAPRi working papers 107, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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