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A Role for Sunspots in Explaining Endogenous Fluctutations in Illegal Immigration

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Author Info
Joe Haslag () (Department of Economics, University of Missouri-Columbia)
Mark G. Guzman (Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)
Pia M. Orrenius (Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

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Abstract

In this paper we provide an alternative explanation for why illegal immigration can exhibit substantial fluctuations despite a constant wage gap. We develop a model economy in which migrants make decisions in the face of uncertain border enforcement and lump-sum transfers from the host country. The uncertainty is extrinsic in nature, a sunspot, and arises as a result of ambiguity regarding the commodity price of money. Migrants are restricted from participating in state-contingent insurance markets in the host country, whereas host country natives are not. We establish the existence of sunspot equilibria that are not mere randomizations over certainty equilibria. Volatility in migration flows stems from two distinct sources: the tension between transfers inducing migration and enforcement discouraging it and secondly the existence of a sunspot. Finally, we examine the impact of a change in tax/transfer policies by the government on migration.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Missouri in its series Working Papers with number 0312.

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Length: 41 pgs.
Date of creation: 26 Sep 2003
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Handle: RePEc:umc:wpaper:0312

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Related research
Keywords: Sunspots; Immigration; International Migration;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Stark, Oded & Wang, You Qiang, 2002. "Migration dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 159-164, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Azariadis, Costas & Guesnerie, Roger, 1986. "Sunspots and Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 725-37, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Woodford, Michael, 1986. "Stationary sunspot equilibria in a finance constrained economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 128-137, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Benhabib, Jess & Nishimura, Kazuo, 1998. "Indeterminacy and Sunspots with Constant Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 58-96, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Roger E.A. Farmer & Jang Ting Guo, 1992. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," UCLA Economics Working Papers 680, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Guzman, Mark G. & Shell, Karl, 1998. "Price Level Volatility: A Simple Model of Money Taxes and Sunspots," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 401-430, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies And The Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(04), pages 740-769, December. [Downloadable!]
  8. Cass, David, 1992. "Sunspots and Incomplete Financial Markets: The General Case," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 341-58, July.
  9. Keister, Todd, 1998. "Money Taxes and Efficiency When Sunspots Matter," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 43-68, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Stark, Oded & Wang, You Qiang, 2002. "Migration Dynamics," Economics Series 112, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
  11. Carrington, William J & Detragiache, Enrica & Vishwanath, Tara, 1996. "Migration with Endogenous Moving Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 909-30, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Woodford, Michael, 1987. "Three Questions about Sunspot Equilibria as an Explanation of Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 93-98, May.
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