Expected Inflation, Sunspots Equilibria and Persistent Unemployment Fluctuations
AbstractWe propose and estimate a model where unemployment fluctuations result from self-fulfilling changes in expected inflation (sunspot shocks) affecting nominal wage bargaining. Since the estimated parameters fall near the locus of Hopf bifurcations, country-specific expected inflation shocks can replicate the strong persistence and heterogeneity observed in European unemployment rates. They also generate positive comovements in macroeconomic variables and a large relative volatility of consumption. All these features, hardly accounted for by standard sunspot-driven models, are explained here by the fact that liquidity constrained workers, facing earnings uncertainty in the context of imperfect unemployment insurance, choose to consume their current income.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 4302.
Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2009
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - General
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
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- NEP-CBA-2009-08-02 (Central Banking)
- NEP-LAB-2009-08-02 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2009-08-02 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2009-08-02 (Monetary Economics)
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