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Climate Change and Migration: A Gravity Model Approach

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  • Pamela Ragazzi

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    Abstract

    In this paper climate change is analysed as one of the reasons that push people to migrate. Climate change shows through four main channels: temperature change, precipitation change, sea level rise and extreme events. All these channels are considered together by adding anomalies in temperature and precipitation and the number of people affected by natural disasters to a gravity model of migration, where the bilateral migration flow between 182 countries of the world is the unit of analysis. The empirical tests demonstrate a statistically significant relation between migration and climate change, however while anomalies in temperature and precipitation have a positive impact, the effect of extreme events is ambiguous.

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    File URL: http://out.economia.unife.it/uploads/dip_deit/quaderni/2012031.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Ferrara, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2012031.

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    Length: 21 pages
    Date of creation: 13 Nov 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:udf:wpaper:2012031

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    Keywords: International migration; Climate change; Natural disasters;

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    1. Salvador Barrios & Luisito Bertinelli & Eric Strobl, 2006. "Climatic Change and Rural-Urban Migration: The Case of Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales 06-01, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    2. Drabo, Alassane & Mbaye, Linguère Mously, 2011. "Climate Change, Natural Disasters and Migration: An Empirical Analysis in Developing Countries," IZA Discussion Papers, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) 5927, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Anna Maria Mayda, 2007. "International migration: A panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," CReAM Discussion Paper Series, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London 0707, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
    4. De Sousa, Jose & Mayer, Thierry & Zignago, Soledad, 2011. "Market access in global and regional trade," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany 35602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ahmed , Syud Amer & Diffenbaugh, Noah S. & Hertel , Thomas W. & Lobell, David B. & Ramankutty, Navin & Rios, Ana R. & Rowhani, Pedram, 2009. "Climate volatility and poverty vulnerability in Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 5117, The World Bank.
    6. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2008. "Climate Change and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc 14132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    8. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1979. "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1287-94, September.
    9. Olivier Desch�nes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    10. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
    11. Salvador Barrios & Luisito Bertinelli & Eric Strobl, 2010. "Trends in Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa: A Neglected Cause of the African Growth Tragedy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 350-366, May.
    12. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
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