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Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration

Author

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  • Ingrid Dallmann

    (Analyse des Dynamiques Industrielles et Sociales (ADIS) - UP11 - Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11)

  • Katrin Millock

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

We match migration data from the 1991 and 2001 Indian Census with climate data to test the hypothesis of climate variability as a push factor for internal migration. The article contributes to the literature by combining three important factors. First, we introduce relevant meteorological indicators of climate variability, based on the standardized precipitation index. Second, the use of the census data enables us to match the migration data with the relevant climate data ex ante, rather than relying on average conditions. Third, we analyse bilateral migration rates in order to fully account for characteristics in both the origin and the destination. We therefore use an econometric estimation method that accounts for zero observations, which are frequent in bilateral data. The estimation results show that drought frequency in the origin state acts as push factor on inter-state migration in India. We do not find a statistically significant effect of the magnitude and the duration of drought episodes preceding migration. There is no evidence of excess precipitation acting as a push factor on inter-state migration. The results are robust to alternative specifications of fixed effects and to the inclusion of irrigation rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2016. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00825807, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00825807
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00825807v2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Isabelle Chort & Maëlys de la Rupelle, 2022. "Managing the impact of climate on migration: evidence from Mexico," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1777-1819, October.
    3. Chort, Isabelle & de la Rupelle, Maëlys, 2017. "Managing the Impact of Climate Change on Migration: Evidence from Mexico," GLO Discussion Paper Series 78, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. Ilan Noy, 2017. "To Leave or Not to Leave? Climate Change, Exit, and Voice on a Pacific Island," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 63(4), pages 403-420.
    5. Pailler, Sharon & Tsaneva, Magda, 2018. "The effects of climate variability on psychological well-being in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 15-26.

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    Keywords

    climate variability; drought; India; internal migration; PPML; SPI;
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