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Extraneous Shocks and International Linkage of Business Cycles in a Two-Country Monetary Model

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Shin-ichi Fukuda (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.)

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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze how changes in market psychology can be the source of world business cycles. The analysis is based on a two-country monetary model with the cash-in-advance constraint. In the model, we assume that international transmissions of the productivity shocks are small. However, when we investigate its dynamic property, we find that there exist stationary sunspot equilibria either when the relative risk aversion of the utility function is large or when positive external effects in production are large. In both cases, stationary sunspot equilibria are more likely outcome for the world aggregate output than for country-specific output. The result holds even when two countries do not have symmetric economic structure. Therefore, even if the fundamental value shows small cross-country output correlations, market psychology can cause large synchronization of business cycles under rational expectations.

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Paper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-16.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Aug 1998
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Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:98cf16

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  1. Costello, Donna M, 1993. "A Cross-Country, Cross-Industry Comparison of Productivity Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 207-22, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Zhou, Ruilin, 1997. "Currency Exchange in a Random Search Model," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 64(2), pages 289-310, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fukuda, Shin-ichi, 1993. "The emergence of equilibrium cycles in a monetary economy with a separable utility function," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 321-334, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Fukuda, Shin-ichi, 1997. "The Role of Monetary Policy in Eliminating Nonconvergent Dynamic Paths," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(1), pages 249-61, February.
  5. Chiappori, Pierre-Andre & Geoffard, Pierre-Yves & Guesnerie, Roger, 1992. "Sunspot Fluctuations around a Steady State: The Case of Multidimensional, One-Step Forward Looking Economic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1097-126, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Stockman, Alan C & Tesar, Linda L, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 168-85, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Shin-ichi Fukuda, 1993. "Endogenous Exchange Rate Fluctuations under the Flexible Exchange Rate Regime," Discussion Paper Series a271, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  8. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1991. "Endogenous Price Fluctuations in an Optimizing Model of a Monetary Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1617-31, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Dellas, Harris, 1986. "A real model of the world business cycle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 381-394, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Michener, Ronald & Ravikumar, B., 1998. "Chaotic dynamics in a cash-in-advance economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1117-1137, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "Self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 380-396, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Stockman, Alan C. & Stockman, Alan C., 1983. "Real exchange rates under alternative nominal exchange-rate systems," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 147-166, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Benhabib, Jess & Day, Richard H., 1982. "A characterization of erratic dynamics in, the overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 37-55, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Fair, Ray C, 1982. "Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages among Countries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(3), pages 507-35, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Helpman, Elhanan, 1981. "An Exploration in the Theory of Exchange-Rate Regimes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 865-90, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1991. "International real business cycles," Staff Report 146, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Nishimura, Kazuo & Yano, Makoto, 1993. "Interlinkage in the Endogenous Real Business Cycles of International Economies," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 151-68, January.
  19. Aschauer, David & Greenwood, Jeremy, 1983. "A Further Exploration in the Theory of Exchange Rate Regimes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(5), pages 868-75, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Fukuda, Shin-ichi, 1993. "International transmission of monetary and fiscal policy : A symmetric N-country analysis with union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 589-620, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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