IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/srk/srkwps/201739.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Decomposing financial (in)stability in emerging economies

Author

Listed:
  • Lepers, Etienne
  • Sánchez Serrano, Antonio

Abstract

The build-up of risks in advanced economies has seen a lot of research efforts in the recent years, while similar research efforts on emerging economies have not been so strong and, when undertaken, have focused mostly on its international dimension. Simultaneously, the financial system of the emerging economies has substantially developed and deepened. In our paper, we construct an index of vulnerabilities in emerging countries, relying solely on data available at international organisations. We group indicators around four poles: valuation and risk appetite, imbalances in the non-financial sector, financial sector vulnerabilities, and global vulnerabilities. On purpose, we depart from early warning models or any other kind of complex econometric constructs. Simplicity and usability are the two key characteristics we have tried to embed into our index of vulnerabilities. We use the results to try to create a narrative of the evolution of vulnerabilities in emerging economies from 2005 to the third quarter of 2015, using innovative data visualisation tools as well as correlations and Granger causalities. We complement our analysis with a comparison between our index of vulnerabilities and the Credit-to-GDP gap. JEL Classification: E44, F65, G01, G15, G21, G23

Suggested Citation

  • Lepers, Etienne & Sánchez Serrano, Antonio, 2017. "Decomposing financial (in)stability in emerging economies," ESRB Working Paper Series 39, European Systemic Risk Board.
    • Handle: RePEc:srk:srkwps:201739
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.esrb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/wp/esrbwp39.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aikman, David & Kiley, Michael & Lee, Seung Jung & Palumbo, Michael G. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2017. "Mapping heat in the U.S. financial system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 36-64.
    2. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2010. "Cross‐Country Causes And Consequences Of The 2008 Crisis: International Linkages And American Exposure," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 340-363, August.
    4. Batuo, Michael & Mlambo, Kupukile & Asongu, Simplice, 2018. "Linkages between financial development, financial instability, financial liberalisation and economic growth in Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 168-179.
    5. Ettore Dorrucci & Alexis Meyer-Cirkel & Daniel Santabárbara, 2009. "Domestic Financial Development in Emerging Economies: Evidence and Implications," Occasional Paper Series 102, European Central Bank.
    6. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    7. repec:zbw:bofitp:2011_002 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Daniela Marchettini & Mr. Rodolfo Maino, 2015. "Systemic Risk Assessment in Low Income Countries: Balancing Financial Stability and Development," IMF Working Papers 2015/190, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises Database II," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(2), pages 307-361, June.
    10. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael, 2014. "Evaluating early warning indicators of banking crises: Satisfying policy requirements," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 759-780.
    11. Iñaki Aldasoro & Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2018. "Early warning indicators of banking crises: expanding the family," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    12. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A., 2005. "Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 385-472, Elsevier.
    13. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Morana, Claudio, 2014. "Determinants of US financial fragility conditions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 377-392.
    14. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    15. Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M., 2012. "Does inequality lead to a financial crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2147-2161.
    16. Michael R. M. Abrigo & Inessa Love, 2016. "Estimation of panel vector autoregression in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 16(3), pages 778-804, September.
    17. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Allen Head & Huw Lloyd-Ellis & Hongfei Sun, 2014. "Search, Liquidity, and the Dynamics of House Prices and Construction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1172-1210, April.
    19. Jon Danielsson & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2018. "Learning from History: Volatility and Financial Crises," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2774-2805.
    20. Dorrucci, Ettore & Meyer-Cirkel, Alexis & Santabárbara, Daniel, 2009. "Domestic financial development in emerging economies: evidence and implications," Occasional Paper Series 102, European Central Bank.
    21. Janice Boucher Breuer, 2004. "An Exegesis on Currency and Banking Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18, pages 293-320, July.
    22. Mathias Drehmann & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2014. "The credit-to-GDP gap and countercyclical capital buffers: questions and answers," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    23. Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang & E. Katarina Vermann, 2012. "Disentangling diverse measures: a survey of financial stress indexes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 369-398.
    24. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
    25. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    26. Joon-Ho Hahm & Hyun Song Shin & Kwanho Shin, 2013. "Noncore Bank Liabilities and Financial Vulnerability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45, pages 3-36, August.
    27. Detken, Carsten & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Schudel, Willem & Behn, Markus, 2013. "Setting countercyclical capital buffers based on early warning models: would it work?," Working Paper Series 1604, European Central Bank.
    28. Park, Cyn-Young & Mercado, Rogelio V., 2014. "Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 199-224.
    29. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
    30. Mathias Drehmann & Mikael Juselius, 2012. "Do debt service costs affect macroeconomic and financial stability?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    31. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Morris Goldstein & Graciela Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2017. "Methodology and Empirical Results," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 11, pages 397-436, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    33. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1997. "The determinants of banking crises : evidence from industrial and developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1828, The World Bank.
    34. Emily Jones & Alexandra O. Zeitz, 2017. "The Limits of Globalizing Basel Banking Standards," Journal of Financial Regulation, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(1), pages 89-124.
    35. Ari, Ali & Cergibozan, Raif, 2018. "Currency crises in Turkey: An empirical assessment," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 281-293.
    36. Elke Hanschel & Pierre Monnin, 2005. "Measuring and forecasting stress in the banking sector: evidence from Switzerland," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 431-49, Bank for International Settlements.
    37. Mr. Stephan Danninger & Ms. Irina Tytell & Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Mr. Selim A Elekdag, 2009. "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 2009/133, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    39. Marco Lo Duca & Tuomas Peltonen, 2011. "Macrofinancial vulnerabilities and future financial stress: assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential regulation and policy, volume 60, pages 82-88, Bank for International Settlements.
    40. Neumann, Todd C. & Fishback, Price V. & Kantor, Shawn, 2010. "The Dynamics of Relief Spending and the Private Urban Labor Market During the New Deal," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 195-220, March.
    41. Christian Brownlees & Robert F. Engle, 2017. "SRISK: A Conditional Capital Shortfall Measure of Systemic Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 48-79.
    42. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    43. Bengtsson, Elias & Grothe, Magdalena & Lepers, Etienne, 2020. "Home, safe home: Cross-country monitoring framework for vulnerabilities in the residential real estate sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    44. Helene Rey, 2013. "Dilemma not trilemma: the global cycle and monetary policy independence," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-2.
    45. Carpenter, Seth & Demiralp, Selva, 2012. "Money, reserves, and the transmission of monetary policy: Does the money multiplier exist?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 59-75.
    46. Derbali, Abdelkader & Hallara, Slaheddine, 2016. "Systemic risk of European financial institutions: Estimation and ranking by the Marginal Expected Shortfall," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 113-134.
    47. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2011. "Anchoring Countercyclical Capital Buffers: The role of Credit Aggregates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(4), pages 189-240, December.
    48. Sui, Lu & Sun, Lijuan, 2016. "Spillover effects between exchange rates and stock prices: Evidence from BRICS around the recent global financial crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 459-471.
    49. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934, Elsevier.
    50. Dooley, Michael P, 2000. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 256-272, January.
    51. Philip Turner, 2014. "The global long-term interest rate, financial risks and policy choices in EMEs," BIS Working Papers 441, Bank for International Settlements.
    52. Pitterle, Ingo & Haufler, Fabio & Hong, Pingfan, 2015. "Assessing emerging markets’ vulnerability to financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 484-500.
    53. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    54. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    55. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 2006. "Bank concentration, competition, and crises: First results," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1581-1603, May.
    56. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    57. Michael R.M. Abrigo & Inessa Love, 2016. "Estimation of Panel Vector Autoregression in Stata: a Package of Programs," Working Papers 201602, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    58. Gozgor, Giray, 2014. "Determinants of domestic credit levels in emerging markets: The role of external factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-18.
    59. Janice Boucher Breuer, 2004. "An Exegesis on Currency and Banking Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 293-320, July.
    60. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Ms. Enrica Detragiache, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises: Evidence From Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 1997/106, International Monetary Fund.
    61. Abdelkader Derbali & Slaheddine Hallara, 2016. "Systemic risk of European institutions: estimation and ranking by Marginal Expected Shortfall," Post-Print hal-01696000, HAL.
    62. Büyükkarabacak, Berrak & Valev, Neven T., 2010. "The role of household and business credit in banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1247-1256, June.
    63. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bengtsson, Elias & Grothe, Magdalena & Lepers, Etienne, 2020. "Home, safe home: Cross-country monitoring framework for vulnerabilities in the residential real estate sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    2. Alonso-Alvarez, Irma & Molina, Luis, 2023. "How to foresee crises? A new synthetic index of vulnerabilities for emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    3. Patnaik, Ila & Mittal, Shalini & Pandey, Radhika, 2019. "Examining the trade-off between price and financial stability in India," Working Papers 19/248, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    4. Marisa Basten & Antonio Sánchez Serrano, 2019. "European banks after the global financial crisis: a new landscape," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(1), pages 51-73, March.
    5. Irma Alonso & Luis Molina, 2019. "The SHERLOC: an EWS-based index of vulnerability for emerging economies," Working Papers 1946, Banco de España.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    2. Naceur, Sami Ben & Candelon, Bertrand & Lajaunie, Quentin, 2019. "Taming financial development to reduce crises," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    4. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2018. "Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 215-225.
    5. André K. Anundsen & Karsten Gerdrup & Frank Hansen & Kasper Kragh‐Sørensen, 2016. "Bubbles and Crises: The Role of House Prices and Credit," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1291-1311, November.
    6. Leroi RAPUTSOANE, 2015. "Alternative Measures of Credit Extension for Countercyclical Buffer Decisions in South Africa," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 210-221, December.
    7. Hamdaoui, Mekki, 2016. "Are systemic banking crises in developed and developing countries predictable?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 37, pages 114-138.
    8. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Vašíček, Bořek & Žigraiová, Diana & Hoeberichts, Marco & Vermeulen, Robert & Šmídková, Kateřina & de Haan, Jakob, 2017. "Leading indicators of financial stress: New evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 240-257.
    10. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    11. Zhang, Xun & He, Zongyue & Zhu, Jiali & Li, Jing, 2018. "Quantity of finance and financial crisis: A non-monotonic investigation☆," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 129-139.
    12. Bjarni G. Einarsson & Kristófer Gunnlaugsson & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2015. "The long history of financial boom-bust cycles in Iceland - Part I: Financial crises," Economics wp68, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    13. Meller, Barbara & Metiu, Norbert, 2017. "The synchronization of credit cycles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 98-111.
    14. Nikolay Hristov & Markus Roth, 2019. "Uncertainty Shocks and Financial Crisis Indicators," CESifo Working Paper Series 7839, CESifo.
    15. Ignacio Lozano-Espitia & Alexander Guarín-López, 2015. "Fragilidad bancaria en Colombia: un análisis basado en las hojas de balance," Chapters, in: Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jair N. Ojeda-Joya (ed.), Política monetaria y estabilidad financiera en economías pequeñas y abiertas, chapter 10, pages 301-338, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    16. Amira Dridi & Mohamed El Ghourabi & Mohamed Limam, 2012. "On monitoring financial stress index with extreme value theory," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 329-339, March.
    17. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Peña, Guillermo, 2016. "The determinants of banking crises: Further evidence," MPRA Paper 70093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Stewart, Robert & Chowdhury, Murshed & Arjoon, Vaalmikki, 2021. "Interdependencies between regulatory capital, credit extension and economic growth," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    20. Christian Kubitza, 2021. "Tackling the Volatility Paradox: Spillover Persistence and Systemic Risk," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 079, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit gap; emerging economies; financial crises; index; risk monitoring;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:srk:srkwps:201739. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esrbede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.