Determinants of US financial fragility conditions
AbstractThe recent financial crisis has highlighted the fragility of the US (and other countries') financial system under several respects. In this paper, the properties of a summary index of financial fragility, obtained by combining information conveyed by the "Agency", "Ted" and "BAA-AAA" spreads, timely capturing changes in credit and liquidity risk, distress in the mortgage market, and corporate default risk, are investigated over the 1986-2010 period. The empirical results show that observed fluctuations in the financial fragility index can be attributed to identified (global and domestic) macroeconomic (20%) and financial disturbances (40% to 50%), over both short- and long-term horizons, as well as to oil-supply shocks in the long-term (25%). The investigation of specific episodes of financial distress, occurred in 1987, 1998 and 2000, and, more recently, over the 2007-2009 period, shows that sizable fluctuations in the index are largely determined by financial shocks, while macroeconomic disturbances have generally had a stabilizing effect.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino in its series Working papers with number 011.
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2012
Date of revision:
financial fragility; US; macro-finance interface; international business cycle; factor vector autoregressive models; financial crisis; Great Recession;
Other versions of this item:
- Fabio Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2012. "Determinants of US financial fragility conditions," CeRP Working Papers 128, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
- Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2013. "Determinants of US Financial fragility conditions," Working Papers 224, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2013.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-10-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2012-10-13 (Banking)
- NEP-RMG-2012-10-13 (Risk Management)
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