Determinants of US financial fragility conditions
AbstractThe recent financial crisis has highlighted the fragility of the US financial system under several respects. In this paper the properties of a summary index of financial fragility, timely capturing changes in credit and liquidity risk, distress in the mortgage market, and corporate default risk, is investigated over the 1986–2010 period. We find that observed fluctuations in the financial fragility index can be attributed to identified (global and domestic) macroeconomic (20%) and financial disturbances (40–50%), over both short- and long-term horizons, as well as to oil-supply shocks in the long-term (25%). Overall, differently from financial shocks, macroeconomic disturbances have generally had a stabilizing effect.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Research in International Business and Finance.
Volume (Year): 30 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf
Financial fragility; US; Macro–finance interface; International business cycle; Factor vector autoregressive models; Financial crisis; Great Recession;
Other versions of this item:
- Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2013. "Determinants of US Financial fragility conditions," Working Papers 224, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2013.
- Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2012. "Determinants of US financial fragility conditions," Working papers 011, Department of Economics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino.
- Fabio Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2012. "Determinants of US financial fragility conditions," CeRP Working Papers 128, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
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