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The role of household and business credit in banking crises

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  • Büyükkarabacak, Berrak
  • Valev, Neven T.
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    Abstract

    Private credit expansions are an important predictor of subsequent banking crises. We revisit that result with a new dataset from developed and developing countries that decomposes private credit into household credit and enterprise credit. We argue that household credit growth raises debt levels without much effect on long-term income. Rapid household credit expansions generate vulnerabilities that can precipitate a banking crisis. Enterprise credit expansions can have the same effects but it is tempered by the associated increase in income. Our estimates show that household credit expansions have been a statistically and economically significant predictor of banking crises. Enterprise credit expansions are also associated with banking crises but their effect is weaker and less robust.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 6 (June)
    Pages: 1247-1256

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:6:p:1247-1256

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

    Related research

    Keywords: Banking crisis Household and business credit growth;

    References

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    1. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:
    1. Stolbov, Mikhail, 2013. "Anatomy of international banking crises at the onset of the Great Recession," MPRA Paper 51236, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Angela Roman & Alina Camelia Sargu, 2011. "Eu New Member States Households‘ Banking Indebtedness And It‘S Implications: An Overview," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 2(13), pages 28.
    3. Gimet, Céline & Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas, 2011. "A closer look at financial development and income distribution," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1698-1713, July.
    4. Sassi, Seifallah & Gasmi, Amira, 2014. "The effect of enterprise and household credit on economic growth: New evidence from European union countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 226-231.
    5. Jones, Jeffrey S. & Lee, Wayne Y. & Yeager, Timothy J., 2013. "Valuation and systemic risk consequences of bank opacity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 693-706.
    6. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk, 2013. "Did Credit Decouple from Output in the Great Moderation?," MPRA Paper 47424, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Cécile Bastidon, 2014. "Households credits and financial stability," Post-Print hal-01021280, HAL.
    8. Arnold, Ivo J.M. & van Ewijk, Saskia E., 2011. "Can pure play internet banking survive the credit crisis?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 783-793, April.
    9. Khandani, Amir E. & Kim, Adlar J. & Lo, Andrew W., 2010. "Consumer credit-risk models via machine-learning algorithms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2767-2787, November.

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