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The WTO Trade Effect

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  • Pao-Li Chang

    ()
    (School of Economics, Singapore Management University)

  • Myoung-Jae Lee

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Korea University)

Abstract

This paper reexamines the GATT/WTO membership effect on bilateral trade flows, using nonparametric methods including pair-matching, permutation tests, and a Rosenbaum (2002) sensitivity analysis. Together, these methods provide an estimation framework that is robust to misspecification biases, allows general forms of heterogeneous treatment effects, and addresses potential hidden selection biases. This is in contrast to most conventional parametric studies on this issue. Our results suggest large GATT/WTO trade-promoting e®ects, robust to various restricted matching criteria, alternative indicators for GATT/WTO involvement, different matching methodologies, non-random incidence of positive trade flows, and inclusion of multilateral resistance terms.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Singapore Management University, School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 31-2010.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series
Handle: RePEc:siu:wpaper:31-2010

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Keywords: Trade flow; Treatment effect; Matching; Permutation test; Signed-rank test; Sensitivity analysis;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pao-Li Chang & Myoung-Jae Lee, 2010. "The WTO Trade Effect," Working Papers 31-2010, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  2. Theo S. Eicher & Christian Henn, 2009. "In Search of WTO Trade Effects," IMF Working Papers 09/31, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Gabriel J Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler, 2009. "WTO Membership and the Extensive Margin of World Trade: New Evidence," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 304/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  4. Christodoulopoulou, Styliani, 2010. "THE Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization on the Extensive and the Intensive Margins of Trade," MPRA Paper 29169, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Jayjit Roy, 2010. "On the Robustness of the Trade-Inducing Effects of Trade Agreements and Currency Unions," Working Papers 10-09, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
  6. Aliyev, Khatai, 2014. "Expected Macroeconomic Impacts of the Accession to WTO on Azerbaijan Economy: Empirical Analysis," MPRA Paper 55096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Hur, Jung & Park, Cheolbeom, 2012. "Do Free Trade Agreements Increase Economic Growth of the Member Countries?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1283-1294.
  8. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Kimura, Fukunari, 2014. "How do free trade agreements reduce tariff rates and non-tariff barriers?," IDE Discussion Papers 446, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  9. Juyoung Cheong & Do Won Kwak & Kam Ki Tang, 2013. "WTO Trade Effects and Identification Problems: Why Knowing The Structural Properties of WTO Memberships Matters?," Discussion Papers Series 491, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  10. Tristan Kohl & Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen, 2013. "Do Trade Agreements Stimulate International Trade Differently? Evidence from 296 Trade Agreements," CESifo Working Paper Series 4243, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2012. "Impacts of FTA utilization on firm performance," IDE Discussion Papers 366, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).

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