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The WTO trade effect

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  • Chang, Pao-Li
  • Lee, Myoung-Jae

Abstract

This paper re-examines the GATT/WTO membership effect on bilateral trade flows, using nonparametric methods including pair-matching, permutation tests, and a Rosenbaum (2002) sensitivity analysis. Together, these methods provide an estimation framework that is robust to misspecification bias, allows general forms of heterogeneous membership effects, and addresses potential hidden selection bias. This is in contrast to most conventional parametric studies on this issue. Our results suggest large GATT/WTO trade-promoting effects that are robust to various restricted matching criteria, alternative GATT/WTO indicators, non-random incidence of positive trade flows, inclusion of multilateral resistance terms, and different matching methodologies.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 85 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (September)
Pages: 53-71

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Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:85:y:2011:i:1:p:53-71

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

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Keywords: Trade flow Treatment effect Matching Permutation test Signed-rank test Sensitivity analysis;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pao-Li Chang¤ & Myoung-Jae Lee, 2008. "The WTO Trade Effect," DEGIT Conference Papers c013_027, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  2. Jayjit Roy, 2014. "On the robustness of the trade-inducing effects of trade agreements and currency unions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 253-304, August.
  3. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Kohler, Wilhelm K., 2009. "WTO membership and the extensive margin of world trade: New evidence," Munich Reprints in Economics 20606, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  4. Juyoung Cheong & Do Won Kwak & Kam Ki Tang, 2013. "WTO Trade Effects and Identification Problems: Why Knowing The Structural Properties of WTO Memberships Matters?," Discussion Papers Series 491, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  5. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Kimura, Fukunari, 2014. "How do free trade agreements reduce tariff rates and non-tariff barriers?," IDE Discussion Papers 446, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  6. Aliyev, Khatai, 2014. "Expected Macroeconomic Impacts of the Accession to WTO on Azerbaijan Economy: Empirical Analysis," MPRA Paper 55096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Theo S. Eicher & Christian Henn, 2009. "In Search of WTO Trade Effects," IMF Working Papers 09/31, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Christodoulopoulou, Styliani, 2010. "THE Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization on the Extensive and the Intensive Margins of Trade," MPRA Paper 29169, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Hur, Jung & Park, Cheolbeom, 2012. "Do Free Trade Agreements Increase Economic Growth of the Member Countries?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1283-1294.
  10. Tristan Kohl & Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen, 2013. "Do Trade Agreements Stimulate International Trade Differently? Evidence from 296 Trade Agreements," CESifo Working Paper Series 4243, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2012. "Impacts of FTA utilization on firm performance," IDE Discussion Papers 366, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).

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