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Estimating the effects of Kyoto on bilateraltrade flows using matching econometrics

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  • Rahel Aichele

    ()

  • Gabriel J. Felbermayr

Abstract

Many Kyoto countries fear a loss of competitiveness due to unilateral climate policyefforts; policymakers therefore call for carbon-related border tax adjustments. With thispaper we attempt to estimate the treatment effect of Kyoto commitment on bilateralexport flows using regression-adjusted differences-in-differences matching techniques.The gravity and international environmental agreement formation literatures provideguidelines for the choice of matching variables. We find that Kyoto countries' exportsare reduced by 13–14% due to Kyoto commitment. Trade effects are largest in energyintensive,homogeneous industries such as iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, organicand inorganic chemicals but also in machinery and equipment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its series Ifo Working Paper Series with number Ifo Working Paper No. 119.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_119

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Keywords: Competitiveness; Kyoto Protocol; matching econometrics; treatment effects;

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References

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  1. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr, 2011. "Kyoto and the Carbon Footprint of Nations," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 103, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  2. Aaditya Mattoo & Arvind Subramanian & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe & Jianwu He, 2009. "Reconciling Climate Change and Trade Policy," Working Papers 189, Center for Global Development.
  3. Paul Veenendaal & Ton Manders, 2008. "Border tax adjustment and the EU-ETS, a quantitative assessment," CPB Document 171, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  4. Peter Egger & Christoph Jeßberger & Mario Larch, 2011. "Trade and investment liberalization as determinants of multilateral environmental agreement membership," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 18(6), pages 605-633, December.
  5. Josh Ederington, Arik Levinson & Jenny Minier, 2003. "Footlose and Pollution Free," Working Papers gueconwpa~03-03-04, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  6. Kurt J. Beron & James C. Murdoch & Wim P. M. Vijverberg, 2003. "Why Cooperate? Public Goods, Economic Power, and the Montreal Protocol," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 286-297, May.
  7. Christian Broda & David Weinstein, 2004. "Globalization and the gains from variety," Staff Reports 180, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  8. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias, 2008. "Alternative approaches to evaluation in empirical microeconomics," CeMMAP working papers CWP26/08, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  9. John A. List & Daniel L. Millimet & Per G. Fredriksson & W. Warren McHone, 2003. "Effects of Environmental Regulations on Manufacturing Plant Births: Evidence from a Propensity Score Matching Estimator," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 944-952, November.
  10. Rose, Andrew K & Spiegel, Mark, 2006. "Non-Economic Engagement and International Exchange: The Case of Environmental Treaties," CEPR Discussion Papers 5942, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2011. "Kyoto and Carbon Leakage: An Empirical Analysis of the Carbon Content of Bilateral Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 3661, CESifo Group Munich.
  12. Aakvik, Arild & Tjøtta, Sigve, 2011. "Do collective actions clear common air? The effect of international environmental protocols on sulphur emissions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 343-351, June.
  13. Babiker, Mustafa H., 2005. "Climate change policy, market structure, and carbon leakage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 421-445, March.
  14. Egger, Hartmut & Egger, Peter & Greenaway, David, 2008. "The trade structure effects of endogenous regional trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 278-298, March.
  15. Daniel Millimet & John List, 2004. "The Case of the Missing Pollution Haven Hypothesis," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 239-262, 08.
  16. Murdoch, James C. & Sandler, Todd, 1997. "The voluntary provision of a pure public good: The case of reduced CFC emissions and the Montreal Protocol," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 331-349, February.
  17. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr & Inga Heiland, 2014. "EEG und internationaler Wettbewerb: Ist die besondere Ausgleichsregelung haltbar?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(02), pages 23-29, 01.
  2. Somlanare Romuald KINDA & Pascale COMBES MOTEL & Jean-Louis COMBES, 2014. "Do Environmental Policies Hurt Trade Performance?," Working Papers 201404, CERDI.

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