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Estimating the effects of Kyoto on bilateraltrade flows using matching econometrics

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  • Rahel Aichele

    ()

  • Gabriel J. Felbermayr

Abstract

Many Kyoto countries fear a loss of competitiveness due to unilateral climate policyefforts; policymakers therefore call for carbon-related border tax adjustments. With thispaper we attempt to estimate the treatment effect of Kyoto commitment on bilateralexport flows using regression-adjusted differences-in-differences matching techniques.The gravity and international environmental agreement formation literatures provideguidelines for the choice of matching variables. We find that Kyoto countries' exportsare reduced by 13–14% due to Kyoto commitment. Trade effects are largest in energyintensive,homogeneous industries such as iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, organicand inorganic chemicals but also in machinery and equipment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its series Ifo Working Paper Series with number Ifo Working Paper No. 119.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_119

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Keywords: Competitiveness; Kyoto Protocol; matching econometrics; treatment effects;

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References

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  1. Murdoch, James C. & Sandler, Todd, 1997. "The voluntary provision of a pure public good: The case of reduced CFC emissions and the Montreal Protocol," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 331-349, February.
  2. Aakvik, Arild & Tjøtta, Sigve, 2007. "Do Collective Actions Clear Common Air? The Effect of International Environmental Protocols on Sulphur Emissions," Working Papers in Economics 10/07, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
  3. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
  4. Kurt J. Beron & James C. Murdoch & Wim P. M. Vijverberg, 2003. "Why Cooperate? Public Goods, Economic Power, and the Montreal Protocol," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 286-297, May.
  5. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains from Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585, May.
  6. Babiker, Mustafa H., 2005. "Climate change policy, market structure, and carbon leakage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 421-445, March.
  7. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2006. "Non-economic engagement and international exchange: the case of environmental treaties," Working Paper Series 2006-33, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  8. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr, 2011. "Kyoto and the Carbon Footprint of Nations," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 103, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  9. Richard Blundell & Mónica Costa Dias, 2008. "Alternative Approaches to Evaluation in Empirical Microeconomics," CEF.UP Working Papers 0805, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  10. Josh Ederington & Arik Levinson & Jenny Minier, 2005. "Footloose and Pollution-Free," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(1), pages 92-99, February.
  11. Aaditya Mattoo & Arvind Subramanian & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe & Jianwu He, 2009. "Reconciling Climate Change and Trade Policy," Working Paper Series WP09-15, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  12. John A. List & Daniel L. Millimet & Per G. Fredriksson & W. Warren McHone, 2003. "Effects of Environmental Regulations on Manufacturing Plant Births: Evidence from a Propensity Score Matching Estimator," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 944-952, November.
  13. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2009. "Estimating the effects of free trade agreements on international trade flows using matching econometrics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 63-76, February.
  14. Egger, Hartmut & Egger, Peter & Greenaway, David, 2008. "The trade structure effects of endogenous regional trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 278-298, March.
  15. Peter Egger & Christoph Jeßberger & Mario Larch, 2011. "Trade and investment liberalization as determinants of multilateral environmental agreement membership," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 18(6), pages 605-633, December.
  16. Paul Veenendaal & Ton Manders, 2008. "Border tax adjustment and the EU-ETS, a quantitative assessment," CPB Document 171, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  17. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2011. "Kyoto and Carbon Leakage: An Empirical Analysis of the Carbon Content of Bilateral Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 3661, CESifo Group Munich.
  18. Daniel Millimet & John List, 2004. "The Case of the Missing Pollution Haven Hypothesis," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 239-262, 08.
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Cited by:
  1. Jean-Louis Combes & Pascale Combes Motel & Somlanare Romuald KINDA, 2014. "Do Environmental Policies Hurt Trade Performance?," Working Papers halshs-00939249, HAL.
  2. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr & Inga Heiland, 2014. "EEG und internationaler Wettbewerb: Ist die besondere Ausgleichsregelung haltbar?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(02), pages 23-29, 01.

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