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Investigating Long-Run Demand for Broad Money in the Gulf Arab Countries

Author

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  • Syed Basher

    (Qatar Central Bank)

  • Stefano Fachin

    (Universita' di Roma "La Sapienza")

Abstract

We estimate the long-run demand for broad money at the Gulf Cooperation Council area level (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)) and at single country level over the 1980-2009 period. Applying time series and panel econometric tests, we first document the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship for money demand – both nationally and regionally. The estimated income- and interest elasticities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE provide a validation for the Baumol-Tobin version of the inventory analysis of the transactions demand for money; while income elasticities in the other GCC economies reflect portfolio demand more strongly than transaction demand with a generally lower interest rate (semi-)elasticities. We discuss how the movements in income velocity can reconcile the varying elasticities documented across the six countries. The different pooled estimators of the regional money demand produce estimated income elasticities in the neighborhood of unity, while interest rate elasticities tend to be smaller than -0.2.

Suggested Citation

  • Syed Basher & Stefano Fachin, 2012. "Investigating Long-Run Demand for Broad Money in the Gulf Arab Countries," DSS Empirical Economics and Econometrics Working Papers Series 2012/6, Centre for Empirical Economics and Econometrics, Department of Statistics, "Sapienza" University of Rome.
    • Handle: RePEc:sas:wpaper:20126
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    Cited by:

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    2. Essahbi Essaadi, 2017. "The feasibility of currency union in Gulf Cooperation Council countries: A business cycle synchronisation view," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(10), pages 2153-2171, October.
    3. Nepal, Rabindra & Paija, Nirash, 2020. "Stability of Money Demand Function in the SAARC Region: A Panel Co-Integration Approach," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 35(1), pages 111-128.
    4. Ufuk CAN & Zeynep Gizem CAN & Süleyman DEĞİRMEN, 2019. "Paranın Dolaşım Hızının ve Para Talebi Fonksiyonunun Ekonometrik Analizi: Türkiye Örneği," Istanbul Business Research, Istanbul University Business School, vol. 48(2), pages 218-247, November.
    5. Haider Mahmood & Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb, 2018. "Asymmetrical effects of real exchange rate on the money demand in Saudi Arabia: A non-linear ARDL approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(11), pages 1-12, November.
    6. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Moayad H. Al Rasasi & Salah S. Alsayaary & Ziyadh Alfawzan, 2022. "Money demand under a fixed exchange rate regime: the case of Saudi Arabia," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 385-411, December.

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    Keywords

    Money demand; Endogenous money; Gulf monetary union; Panel cointegration; Poolability.;
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