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Model Misspecification, Learning and the Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle

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Author Info
V. LEWIS ()
A. MARKIEWICZ

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Abstract

Rational expectations models fail to explain the disconnect between the ex-change rate and macroeconomic fundamentals. In line with survey evidence on the behaviour of foreign exchange traders, we introduce model misspecification and learning into a standard monetary model. Agents use simple forecasting rules based on a restricted information set. They learn about the parameters and performance of different models and can switch between forecasting rules. We compute the implied US-UK post-Bretton Woods exchange rate under learning. While the excess volatility of the exchange rate return can be reproduced with low values of the learning gain, the implied correlations with the fundamentals are higher than in the data.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium with number 09/563.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:09/563

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Related research
Keywords: exchange rate; disconnect; misspecification; learning;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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