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Predicting home-appliance acquisition sequences: Markov/Markov for Discrimination and survival analysis for modeling sequential information in NPTB models

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  • A. PRINZIE

    ()

  • D. VAN DEN POEL

    ()

Abstract

The acquisition process of consumer durables is a ‘sequence’ of purchase events. Priority-pattern research exploits this ‘sequential order’ to describe a prototypical acquisition order for durables. This paper adds a predictive perspective to increase managerial relevance. Besides order information, the acquisition sequence also reveals precise timing between purchase events (‘sequential duration’) as examined in the literature on durable replacement and time-to-first acquisition. This paper bridges the gap between priority-pattern research and research on duration between durable acquisitions to improve the prediction of the product group the customer might acquire his next durable from, i.e. Next-Product-to-Buy (NPTB) model. We evaluate four multinomial-choice models incorporating: 1) general covariates, 2) general covariates and sequential order, 3) general covariates and sequential duration, and 4) general covariates, sequential order and duration. The results favor the model including general covariates and duration information (3). The high predictive value of sequentialduration information emphasizes the predictive power of duration as compared to order information.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium with number 07/442.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:07/442

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Related research

Keywords: cross-sell; sequence analysis; choice modeling; durable goods; analytical CRM;

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References

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  9. Seetharaman, P B & Chintagunta, Pradeep K, 2003. "The Proportional Hazard Model for Purchase Timing: A Comparison of Alternative Specifications," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(3), pages 368-82, July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Michelsen , Carl Christian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Switching from Fossil Fuel to Renewables in Residential Heating Systems: An Empirical Study of Homeowners’ Decisions in Germany," FCN Working Papers 14/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  2. Joseph Guiltinan, 2010. "Consumer durables replacement decision-making: An overview and research agenda," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 163-174, June.
  3. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel, 2013. "Weak Signal Identification with Semantic Web Mining," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/860, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  4. Talla Nobibon, Fabrice & Leus, Roel & Spieksma, Frits C.R., 2011. "Optimization models for targeted offers in direct marketing: Exact and heuristic algorithms," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 210(3), pages 670-683, May.
  5. V. L. Miguéis & D. Van Den Poel & A.S. Camanho & Joao Falcao E Cunha, 2012. "Predicting Partial Customer Churn Using Markov for Discrimination for Modeling First Purchase Sequences," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/806, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  6. Chen, Zhen-Yu & Fan, Zhi-Ping & Sun, Minghe, 2012. "A hierarchical multiple kernel support vector machine for customer churn prediction using longitudinal behavioral data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(2), pages 461-472.
  7. D. F. Benoit & D. Van Den Poel, 2009. "Benefits of Quantile Regression for the Analysis of Customer Lifetime Value in a Contractual Setting: An Application in Financial Services," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 09/551, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  8. V. L. Miguéis & D. Van Den Poel & A.S. Camanho & J. Falcao E Cunha, 2012. "Modeling Partial Customer Churn: On the Value of First Product-Category Purchase Sequences," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/790, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

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  1. User:Webridge/我的沙盘/2 in Wikipedia Chinese ne '')
  2. Dizi hizalaması in Wikipedia Turkish ne '')
  3. Alineamiento de secuencias in Wikipedia Spanish ne '')
  4. Sequence alignment in Wikipedia English ne '')
  5. Aliñamento de secuencias in Wikipedia Galician ne '')

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