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Decisions to Replace Consumer Durables Goods: An Econometric Application of Wiener and Renewal Processes

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  • Viviana Fernandez

Abstract

Current sales of most consumer durable goods are accounted for by replacements. However, only in recent years has the economic literature provided a more rigorous analysis of replacement purchases by incorporating elements of dynamic programming and of the theory of stochastic processes. This paper is an empirical study of household replacement decisions modeled as an optimal stopping rule. Using data from the ‘Residential Energy Consumption Survey’ (RECS) of the U.S. Department of Energy, we conclude that demographic variables, operation and replacement costs, and equipment characteristics may affect ownership spells of appliances such as electric heaters and central air conditioners.

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  • Viviana Fernandez, 2000. "Decisions to Replace Consumer Durables Goods: An Econometric Application of Wiener and Renewal Processes," Documentos de Trabajo 87, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:edj:ceauch:87
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rust, John, 1985. "Stationary Equilibrium in a Market for Durable Assets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(4), pages 783-805, July.
    2. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
    3. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "Consumer Durables: Evidence on the Optimality of Usually Doing Nothing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(2), pages 258-272, May.
    4. Poirier, Dale J. & Ruud, Paul A., 1981. "On the appropriateness of endogenous switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 249-256, June.
    5. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1994. "Notes on the Theory and Evidence on Aggregate Purchases of Durable Goods," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 10(2), pages 107-117, Summer.
    6. Ye, Meng-Hua, 1990. "Optimal replacement policy with stochastic maintenance and operation costs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 84-94, January.
    7. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Renault, Eric & Trognon, Alain, 1987. "Generalised residuals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 5-32.
    8. Mauer, David C. & Ott, Steven H., 1995. "Investment under Uncertainty: The Case of Replacement Investment Decisions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(4), pages 581-605, December.
    9. Gilbert, Carol C. S., 1992. "A duration model of automobile ownership," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 97-114, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Prince, Jeffrey T., 2009. "How do households choose quality and time to replacement for a rapidly improving durable good?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 302-311, March.
    2. Shigeru Matsumoto & Hajime Sugeta, 2022. "Efficiency Investment and Curtailment Action," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(3), pages 759-789, November.
    3. Jiaxing Wang & Shigeru Matsumoto, 2022. "An economic model of home appliance replacement: application to refrigerator replacement among Japanese households," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 24(1), pages 29-48, January.
    4. Viviana Fernández, 2002. "What Drives Replacement of Durable Goods at the Micro Level?," Documentos de Trabajo 122, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    5. Joseph Guiltinan, 2010. "Consumer durables replacement decision-making: An overview and research agenda," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 163-174, June.
    6. Ken-Ichi Akao, 2017. "An economic analysis of the “Home Appliance Eco-Point System” in Japan," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 19(3), pages 483-501, July.
    7. A. Prinzie & D. Van Den Poel, 2007. "Predicting home-appliance acquisition sequences: Markov/Markov for Discrimination and survival analysis for modeling sequential information in NPTB models," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 07/442, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    8. Fernandez, Viviana P., 2001. "Observable and unobservable determinants of replacement of home appliances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 305-323, May.

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