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How long to own and how much to use a car? A dynamic discrete choice model to explain holding duration and driven mileage

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  • de Lapparent, Matthieu
  • Cernicchiaro, Giulia

Abstract

We develop a dynamic discrete choice model of car holding duration and use for French households owning only one car over the 2000–2007 period. We consider income, fuel prices and cumulated mileage as stochastic state variables. It is found that accounting for forward-looking economic agents greatly improves the understanding of the underlying logic that drives such choices whenever theoretical assumptions and used data may appear as a sketchy description of a more complex reality.

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  • de Lapparent, Matthieu & Cernicchiaro, Giulia, 2012. "How long to own and how much to use a car? A dynamic discrete choice model to explain holding duration and driven mileage," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1737-1744.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:5:p:1737-1744
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.05.018
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    Cited by:

    1. Chenfeng Xiong & Di Yang & Lei Zhang, 2018. "A High-Order Hidden Markov Model and Its Applications for Dynamic Car Ownership Analysis," Service Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(6), pages 1365-1375, December.
    2. Shiang-Min Meng & Li-Jen Liu & Mikhail Kuritsyn & Vladislav Pechnikov, 2019. "Price Determinants on Used Car Auction in Taiwan," International Journal of Asian Social Science, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(1), pages 48-58, January.
    3. Anna Fernández-Antolín & Matthieu Lapparent & Michel Bierlaire, 2018. "Modeling purchases of new cars: an analysis of the 2014 French market," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 84(2), pages 277-303, March.
    4. Urena Serulle, Nayel & Cirillo, Cinzia, 2017. "The optimal time to evacuate: A behavioral dynamic model on Louisiana resident data," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 447-463.

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