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Balladurette and Juppette: A Discrete Analysis of Scrapping Subsidies

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  • Jerome Adda
  • Russell Cooper

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of subsidies on durable goods markets. In particular, we focus on a recent policy in France in which the governments of Balladur and Jupp� subsidized the replacement of old cars with new ones. To study this policy, we construct a dynamic stochastic discrete choice model of car ownership at the household level. The resulting decision rules and equilibrium conditions are used to estimate the underlying parameters of the model using aggregate data. These policy functions are used to evaluate the short- and long-run effects of the French policies. We find that these policies do stimulate the automobile sector in the short run but, through the induced changes in the cross-sectional distribution of car ages, create the basis for subsequent low activity. Further, while these policies increase government revenues in the short run, revenues in the long run are lower relative to a baseline without intervention.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Political Economy.

Volume (Year): 108 (2000)
Issue (Month): 4 (August)
Pages: 778-806

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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:108:y:2000:i:4:p:778-806

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  1. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1990. "Expenditure on Durable Goods: A Case for Slow Adjustment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(3), pages 727-43, August.
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  7. Alan Greenspan & Darrel Cohen, 1999. "Motor Vehicle Stocks, Scrappage, And Sales," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 369-383, August.
  8. Orazio P. Attanasio, 1995. "Consumer Durables and Inertial Behavior: Estimation and Aggregation of (S,s) Rules," NBER Working Papers 5282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  11. Raouf Boucekkine & Omar Licandro, . "Replacement echoes in durable goods purchases," Working Papers 97-15, FEDEA.
  12. Chris Carroll & Wendy Dunn, 1997. "Unemployment Expectations, Jumping (S,s) Triggers, and Household Balance Sheets," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 165-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. repec:fth:coluec:465 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Lee, Bong-Soo & Ingram, Beth Fisher, 1991. "Simulation estimation of time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2-3), pages 197-205, February.
  15. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
  16. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1982. "Hall's consumption hypothesis and durable goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 417-425.
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