Motor vehicle stocks, scrappage, and sales
AbstractThis paper offers a new framework for analyzing aggregate sales of new motor vehicles that incorporates separate models for the change in the vehicle stock and for the rate of vehicle scrappage. Because this approach requires only a minimal set of assumptions about demographic trends, the state of the economy, consumer "preferences," new vehicle prices and repair costs, and vehicle retirements, it is shown to be especially useful as a macroeconomic forecasting tool. In addition, a new historical annual time series estimate of motor vehicle stocks in the United States is presented.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 96-40.
Date of creation: 1996
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- James Berkovec, 1985. "New Car Sales and Used Car Stocks: A Model of the Automobile Market," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 16(2), pages 195-214, Summer.
- Ana Aizcorbe & Martha Starr & James T. Hickman, 2003. "The replacement demand for motor vehicles: evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Bruce W Hamilton & Molly Macauley, 1996.
"Competition and Car Longevity,"
Economics Working Paper Archive
361, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Jerome Adda & Russell Cooper, 2000.
"Balladurette and Juppette: A Discrete Analysis of Scrapping Subsidies,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(4), pages 778-806, August.
- Jerome Adda & Russell Cooper, 1997. "Balladurette and Juppette: A Discrete Analysis of Scrapping Subsidies," Papers 0076, Boston University - Industry Studies Programme.
- Jerome Adda & Russell Cooper, 1997. "Balladurette and Juppette: A Discrete Analysis of Scrapping Subsidies," NBER Working Papers 6048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Adda, Jérôme & Cooper, Russell W., 1997. "Balladurette and jupette: a discrete analysis of scrapping subsidies," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9711, CEPREMAP.
- Shanjun Li & Christopher Timmins & Roger H. von Haefen, 2009.
"How Do Gasoline Prices Affect Fleet Fuel Economy?,"
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy,
American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 113-37, August.
- Guerrero, Sebastian E. & Madanat, Samer M. & Leachman, Robert C., 2013. "The Trucking Sector Optimization Model: A tool for predicting carrier and shipper responses to policies aiming to reduce GHG emissions," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 85-107.
- Ricardo J. Caballero, 1997.
NBER Working Papers
6264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yizao Liu, 2010. "Gasoline Prices, Fuel Economy Efficiency And Automobile Replacement Dynamics," Working Papers 02, University of Connecticut, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Charles J. Zwick Center for Food and Resource Policy.
- Bastani, Parisa & Heywood, John B. & Hope, Chris, 2012. "The effect of uncertainty on US transport-related GHG emissions and fuel consumption out to 2050," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 517-548.
- Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 1999. "Durable Goods Cycles," NBER Working Papers 6987, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jie Lin & Cynthia Chen & Debbie Niemeier, 2008. "An analysis on long term emission benefits of a government vehicle fleet replacement plan in northern illinois," Transportation, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 219-235, March.
- Daly, Hannah E. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2011. "Modelling future private car energy demand in Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7815-7824.
- Chen, Cynthia & Niemeier, Debbie, 2005. "A mass point vehicle scrappage model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 401-415, June.
- Sa-ngasoongsong, Akkarapol & Bukkapatnam, Satish T.S. & Kim, Jaebeom & Iyer, Parameshwaran S. & Suresh, R.P., 2012. "Multi-step sales forecasting in automotive industry based on structural relationship identification," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 875-887.
- Hennessy, Hugh & Tol, Richard S. J., 2010. "The Impact of Climate Policy on Private Car Ownership in Ireland," Papers WP342, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Bonilla, David, 2009. "Fuel demand on UK roads and dieselisation of fuel economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3769-3778, October.
- Karl Storchmann, 2004. "On the Depreciation of Automobiles: An International Comparison," Transportation, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 371-408, November.
- Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John, 2006. "Equilibrium in a durable goods market with lumpy adjustment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 187-213, May.
- Dray, Lynnette, 2013. "An analysis of the impact of aircraft lifecycles on aviation emissions mitigation policies," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 62-69.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kris Vajs).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.