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Motor vehicle stocks, scrappage, and sales

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Author Info
Alan Greenspan
Darrel Cohen
Abstract

This paper offers a new framework for analyzing aggregate sales of new motor vehicles that incorporates separate models for the change in the vehicle stock and for the rate of vehicle scrappage. Because this approach requires only a minimal set of assumptions about demographic trends, the state of the economy, consumer "preferences," new vehicle prices and repair costs, and vehicle retirements, it is shown to be especially useful as a macroeconomic forecasting tool. In addition, a new historical annual time series estimate of motor vehicle stocks in the United States is presented.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 96-40.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:96-40

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Related research
Keywords: Automobile industry and trade ; Stocks;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. James Berkovec, 1985. "New Car Sales and Used Car Stocks: A Model of the Automobile Market," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 16(2), pages 195-214, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Macauley, Molly & Hamilton, Bruce, 1998. "Competition and Car Longevity," Discussion Papers dp-98-20, Resources For the Future. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jerome Adda & Russell Cooper, 1997. "Balladurette and Juppette: A Discrete Analysis of Scrapping Subsidies," NBER Working Papers 6048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-18.

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