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Motor Vehicle Stocks, Scrappage, And Sales

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Author Info
Alan Greenspan
Darrel Cohen
Abstract

This paper offers a framework for forecasting aggregate sales of new motor vehicles; this framework incorporates separate models for the change in the vehicle stock and for the rate of vehicle scrappage. Because this approach requires only a minimal set of assumptions about demographic trends, the state of the economy, consumer ''preferences,'' new vehicle prices and repair costs, and vehicle retirements, it is shown to be especially useful as a macroeconomic forecasting tool. In addition, this paper presents a new historical annual time-series estimate of motor vehicle stocks in the United States. © 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 81 (1999)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 369-383
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:81:y:1999:i:3:p:369-383

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  1. Ana Aizcorbe & Martha Starr & James T. Hickman, 2003. "The replacement demand for motor vehicles: evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Shanjun Li & Roger von Haefen & Christopher Timmins, 2008. "How Do Gasoline Prices Affect Fleet Fuel Economy?," NBER Working Papers 14450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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