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Exchange Rate Regimes in the Asia-Pacific Region and the Global Financial Crisis

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  • McKibbin, Warwick J.

    ()
    (Australian National University)

  • Chanthapun, Waranya Pim

    ()
    (Australian National University)

Abstract

Rising economic integration in Asia and periodic volatility in global and national financial markets raise the issue of the optimal degree and form of monetary cooperation among Asian economies. There is a large literature on the benefits and costs of monetary cooperation, however, less can be found with a specific focus on Asia. A number of studies have explored whether Asia might form an optimal currency area, although these have focused on the nature of shocks, in particular business cycle correlations, as well as the extent of trade linkages among economies. Less has been done on the impact of portfolio shifts and financial shocks, and how these shocks impact on financial cooperation. This paper has two goals. The first is to explore the impacts of the current global financial crisis on Asian economies under existing monetary and exchange rate arrangements. The second is to explore how alternative forms of cooperation and exchange rate regimes might change the economic outcomes in Asia. In particular, the paper explores the impact of current regimes compared to one of three hypothetical regimes: (i) all countries peg to the US dollar, (ii) all Asian economies are in an Asian Currency Union with an Asian Central Bank setting policy, or (iii) floating exchange rates with each central bank in Asia independently choosing optimal time-consistent, close-loop policy rules to target a loss function consisting of deviation in inflation and output growth from desired levels.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Asian Development Bank in its series Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration with number 36.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:adbrei:0036

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Keywords: Monetary cooperation; exchange rates; financial crisis;

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References

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  1. Soyoung Kim & Jong‐Wha Lee, 2012. "Real and Financial Integration in East Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 332-349, 05.
  2. Kim, Soyoung & Yang, Doo Yong, 2008. "The Impact of Capital Inflows on Emerging East Asian Economies: Is Too Much Money Chasing Too Little Good?," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 15, Asian Development Bank.
  3. Lee, Chee Sung & Park, Cyn-Young, 2009. "Beyond the Crisis: Financial Regulatory Reform in Emerging Asia," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 34, Asian Development Bank.
  4. Menon, Jayant, 2009. "Managing Success in Viet Nam: Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Capital Inflows with Limited Policy Tools," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 27, Asian Development Bank.
  5. Plummer, Michael G., 2006. "Toward Win-Win Regionalism in Asia: Issues and Challenges in Forming Efficient Trade Agreements," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 5, Asian Development Bank.
  6. Michael G. Plummer & Ganeshan Wignaraja, 2006. "The Post-Crisis Sequencing of Economic Integration in Asia: Trade as a Complement to a Monetary Future," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 107, pages 59-85.
  7. Lee, Jong-Wha & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2009. "Does Trade Integration Contribute to Peace?," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 24, Asian Development Bank.
  8. Dowling, Malcolm & Wignaraja, Ganeshan, 2006. "Central Asia after Fifteen Years of Transition: Growth, Regional Cooperation, and Policy Choices," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 3, Asian Development Bank.
  9. Kawai, Masahiro & Wignaraja, Ganeshan, 2008. "Regionalism as an Engine of Multilateralism: A Case for a Single East Asian FTA," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 14, Asian Development Bank.
  10. Menon, Jayant, 2008. "Cambodia's Persistent Dollarization: Causes and Policy Options," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 19, Asian Development Bank.
  11. Capannelli, Giovanni & Lee, Jong-Wha & Petri, Peter, 2009. "Developing Indicators for Regional Economic Integration and Cooperation," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 33, Asian Development Bank.
  12. Lejot , Paul & Arner, Douglas & Schou-Zibell, Lotte, 2008. "Securitization in East Asia," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 12, Asian Development Bank.
  13. Park, Donghyun & Park, Innwon & Estrada, Gemma Esther B., 2008. "Is the ASEAN-Korea Free Trade Area (AKFTA) an Optimal Free Trade Area?," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 21, Asian Development Bank.
  14. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas F., 2007. "Measuring Regional Market Integration in Developing Asia: a Dynamic Factor Error Correction Model (DF-ECM) Approach," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 8, Asian Development Bank.
  15. Menon, Jayant & Melendez-Nakamura, Anna, 2009. "Aging in Asia: Trends,Impacts and Responses," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 25, Asian Development Bank.
  16. Kim, Soyoung & Lee, Jong-Wha & Park, Cyn-Young, 2009. "Emerging Asia: Decoupling or Recoupling," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 31, Asian Development Bank.
  17. Schou-Zibell, Lotte & Wells, Stephen, 2008. "India's Bond Market-Developments and Challenges Ahead," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 22, Asian Development Bank.
  18. Lee, Jong-Wha & Park, Cyn-Young, 2008. "Global Financial Turmoil: Impact and Challenges for Asia's Financial Systems," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 18, Asian Development Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Warwick J McKibbin & Andy Stoeckel, 2009. "Modelling the Global Financial Crisis," CAMA Working Papers 2009-25, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Rigg, Robert & Schou-Zibell, Lotte, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and Money Markets in Emerging Asia," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 38, Asian Development Bank.
  3. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 2013. "A Global Approach to Energy and the Environment," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
  4. Schou-Zibell, Lotte & Madhur, Srinivasa, 2010. "Regulatory Reforms for Improving the Business Environment in Selected Asian Economies - How Monitoring and Comparative Benchmarking Can Provide Incentive for Reform," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 40, Asian Development Bank.

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