The Impact of Capital Inflows on Emerging East Asian Economies: Is Too Much Money Chasing Too Little Good?
AbstractIn recent years, emerging East Asian economies have experienced large capital inflows-especially a surge in portfolio inflows-and an appreciation of asset prices such as equities, land, and both nominal and real exchange rates. The paper reviews why a surge in capital inflows can increase asset prices, and then empirically investigates the effects by employing a panel vector autoregression (VAR) model. The empirical results suggest that capital inflows have indeed contributed to the asset price appreciation in this region, although capital inflow shocks explain a relatively small part of asset price fluctuations. How to manage these capital inflows is also discussed.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Asian Development Bank in its series Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration with number 15.
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 01 May 2008
Date of revision:
Capital inflows; portfolio inflows; asset prices;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-09-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-09-20 (Central Banking)
- NEP-IFN-2008-09-20 (International Finance)
- NEP-MON-2008-09-20 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-SEA-2008-09-20 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sims, Christopher A. & Zha, Tao, 2006.
"Does Monetary Policy Generate Recessions?,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(02), pages 231-272, April.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Magud, Nicolas, 2007.
"Capital controls: An evaluation,"
14097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Nicolas Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2005. "Capital Controls: An Evaluation," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-19, University of Oregon Economics Department.
- Nicolas Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2006. "Capital Controls: An Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 11973, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Hans Genberg & Sushil Wadhwani, 2002. "Asset Prices in a Flexible Inflation Targeting Framework," NBER Working Papers 8970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sims, Christopher A., 1988.
"Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 463-474.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 3, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Bekaert, G. & Harvey, C. R. & Lumsdaine, R. L., 2002.
"The dynamics of emerging market equity flows,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 295-350, June.
- Kenneth A. Froot & Paul G.J. O'Connell & Mark S. Seasholes, 1998.
"The Portfolio Flows of International Investors, I,"
NBER Working Papers
6687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 2001. "The Transmission Mechanism and the Role of Asset Prices in Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mishkin, Frederic S., 1999.
"Lessons from the Asian crisis,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 709-723, August.
- Andrew J. Filardo, 2001. "Should monetary policy respond to asset price bubbles? : some experimental results," Research Working Paper RWP 01-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Kim, Soyoung, 1999. "Do monetary policy shocks matter in the G-7 countries? Using common identifying assumptions about monetary policy across countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 387-412, August.
- Bordo, Michael D & Jeanne, Olivier, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: Does 'Benign Neglect' Make Sense?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 139-64, Summer.
- William R. White, 2006. "Is price stability enough?," BIS Working Papers 205, Bank for International Settlements.
- Anna Schwartz, 2003.
"Asset price inflation and monetary policy,"
Atlantic Economic Journal,
International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(1), pages 1-14, March.
- Nouriel Roubini, 2006. "Why Central Banks Should Burst Bubbles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 87-107, 05.
- Ogawa, Eiji & Yang, Doo Yong, 2008. "The dilemma of exchange rate arrangements in East Asia," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 217-235, March.
- Kristin J. Forbes, 2005.
"The Microeconomic Evidence on Capital Controls: No Free Lunch,"
NBER Working Papers
11372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kristin J. Forbes, 2007. "The Microeconomic Evidence on Capital Controls: No Free Lunch," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 171-202 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
- Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January.
- Sims, Christopher A & Uhlig, Harald, 1991.
"Understanding Unit Rooters: A Helicopter Tour,"
Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1591-99, November.
- Christopher A. Sims & Harald Uhlig, 1988. "Understanding unit rooters: a helicopter tour," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 4, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
- Soyoung Kim & Sunghyun Henry Kim & Yunjong Wang, 2004. "Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Account Liberalization: the Case of Korea," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(4), pages 624-639, November.
- Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista, 2008. "Asset prices and monetary policy: booms and fat tails in East Asia," BIS Working Papers 243, Bank for International Settlements.
- Schou-Zibell, Lotte & Madhur, Srinivasa, 2010. "Regulatory Reforms for Improving the Business Environment in Selected Asian Economies - How Monitoring and Comparative Benchmarking Can Provide Incentive for Reform," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 40, Asian Development Bank.
- McKibbin, Warwick J. & Chanthapun, Waranya Pim, 2009.
"Exchange Rate Regimes in the Asia-Pacific Region and the Global Financial Crisis,"
Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration
36, Asian Development Bank.
- Warwick McKibbin & Waranya Pim Chanthapun, 2009. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Asia-Pacific Region and the Global Financial Crisis," CAMA Working Papers 2009-30, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Eduardo Olaberría, 2012. "Capital Inflows and Booms in Assets Prices: Evidence From a Panel of Countries," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 675, Central Bank of Chile.
- Tereso S. Tullao & John Paolo R. Rivera & Mitzie Irene P. Conchada, 2011. "Role of global production networks in understanding the impacts of the macroeconomics stimulus," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT, in: Trade-led growth: A sound strategy for Asia, chapter 4 United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
- Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2013.
"Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets,"
Emerging Markets Review,
Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 92-106.
- Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2012. "Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets," BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Rigg, Robert & Schou-Zibell, Lotte, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and Money Markets in Emerging Asia," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 38, Asian Development Bank.
- Madhur, Srinivasa & Wignaraja, Ganeshan & Darjes, Peter, 2009. "Roads for Asian Integration: Measuring ADB's Contribution to the Asian Highway Network," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 37, Asian Development Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ivan B. de Leon).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.