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Are Central Banks' Projections Meaningful?

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  • Jordi Gali

    (CREI)

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    Abstract

    Central banks’ projections– i.e. forecasts conditional on a given interest rate path– are often criticized on the grounds that their underlying policy assumptions are inconsistent with the existence of a unique equilibrium in many forward-looking models. The present paper describes three alternative approaches to constructing projections that are not subject to that criticism, using a standard New Keynesian model as a reference framework. Yet, and even though they imply an identical path for the interest rate, the three approaches are shown to generate di¤erent projections for inflation and output. That result calls into question the meaning and usefulness of such projections.

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    File URL: http://www.economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2008/paper_174.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2008 Meeting Papers with number 174.

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    Date of creation: 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:red:sed008:174

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    1. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1998. "The perils of Taylor Rules," Departmental Working Papers 199831, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    2. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
    3. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2005. "Bayesian New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS) Models: Modern Tools for Central Banks," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 422-433, 04/05.
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    Cited by:
    1. Laséen, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E O, 2011. "Anticipated Alternative Instrument-Rate Paths in Policy Simulations," CEPR Discussion Papers 8176, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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